Ground attack increasingly likely
CAIRO: In an attempt to diffuse the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana made a blitz visit to the region this week, where he met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, President Hosni Mubarak and Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa.
“The time to be more active [diplomatically] is probably now, says Solana, adding that he nevertheless does not expect any substantial developments on the diplomatic front for several days.
Speaking in Cairo after a brief meeting with President Hosni Mubarak, Solana called on parties in the conflict to use their influence to restore calm. Something may come out next week when there will be a consensus in the Security Council and then a resolution, he said. There are countries, groups who have responsibility. The sooner they use their influence the better. To achieve a ceasefire there must be a political will, he said.
The Israeli army’s attacks on Lebanon were sparked by Hezbollah’s abducted of two Israeli soldiers. To date, however, the attacks have been limited mainly to air strikes and border crossfire.
“I think that the act of Hezbollah was not a legal act. It was an act of provocation and I don’t think it was very intelligent, says Solana.
Nevertheless, the release of the soldiers is unlikely to appease Israel, which has witnessed continued confrontations with Hezbollah since its withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.
“They’re not doing all this just for two soldiers, says Mohammed El-Sayed Said of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
Hezbollah and the Lebanese government do not recognize Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon as complete despite its certification by the United Nations due to the fact that Israel continues to occupy Shebaa farms, a small area on the border with Syria that is claimed by Israel, Lebanon and Syria.
This has given Hezbollah a primary pretext for its previous attacks on Israel, just as the kidnapping of the soldiers has given Israel a pretext to attack Lebanon.
“The fact is that Israel was targeted from Lebanon, says Livni after meeting with Solana in Jerusalem. “What we are doing now is an answer to the threat, and not an answer to an incident.
Said explains that Israel will no longer accept the presence of Hezbollah forces close to its border, and the purpose of the air strikes is to inflict “collective punishment on the Lebanese people while isolating Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, the current proposal from the international community to deploy a multinational force in southern Lebanon is unacceptable to Hezbollah.
“This would be a form of political defeat for Hezbollah, and I don’t think they will accept political defeat right now. Hezbollah is in an excellent military position, says Said.
For this reason, a diplomatic compromise is unlikely to be reached anytime soon, and a land incursion by the Israeli army into Lebanon is increasingly probable.
“In order to reduce the military effectiveness of Hezbollah, they need to carry out a land attack, says Said. There needs to be a change in the military balance before there is any real breakthrough in the situation.
The Israeli army is already believed to have entered Lebanon, with Israeli media reporting that thousand of soldiers have crossed the border and are operating in Lebanese territory.
“We will carry out a massive recruitment of reserves and it s possible that many more forces … will reach the border in the next few days, Brigadier-General Alon Friedman of the Israeli army tells the Maariv newspaper. It s possible that in the coming days our ground operations will increase.
In the interim, European and Arab countries can only attempt to mediate between Lebanon, Israel and the United States, the latter being the dominant power in the region and the only country capable of putting real pressure on Israel.
“The primary issue is the termination of destruction, says Moussa, referring to an end of Israeli attacks on Lebanon as the first step towards resolving the conflict.
The Arab League continues to support Hezbollah’s position. “Resistance is a right and we have reiterated this in the past, says Moussa.
However, the league’s role in resolving the conflict is limited by the apathy of its members.
Yemen proposed a summit to discuss the situation, but only nine other Arab countries (Egypt, Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon, Palestine, Qatar, Djibouti, Kuwait and Mauritania) have committed to attend, falling short of the 22 nation quorum required by the league.
Meanwhile, Syria and Iran, Hezbollah’s main backers, have been notably silent. Solana says that he has spoken to officials from both countries on Thursday without divulging further details.
“Those who may have influence to help solve this problem, they have to do it soon, immediately, now, says Solana.
