Weighing team’s possibilities against Sfaxien
If you want to know what will happen in the two-game final series between Ahly and CS Sfaxien in the African Champions League, starting with tomorrow’s penultimate match, look no further than right here.
This column, a day before Ahly met ASEC of the Ivory Coast in the second leg of their semi-final clash in the same tournament, let readers in on the results beforehand.
After a thorough reading of the situation, this was the exact prophecy, “Ahly will probably lose but not by enough to prevent the club from reaching the final. Lo and behold, Ahly lost 2-1, but, having won the first encounter in Cairo 2-0, the team reached the final all the same.
Can we forecast so brilliantly again? Probably not, but here it goes anyway.
Historically, Ahli has seen it all, been there, done that. The team is the defending champion and is chasing a record tying fifth Champions League title. True, Sfaxien knows what it takes to win, having lifted the CAF Cup in 1998 and the maiden tournament of the Arab Champions League. But they do not know what it feels like to win the more prestigious and more difficult African Champions League; they have never even ventured to the final.
However, the past can seem a distant memory when compared to recent head-to-head confrontations.
In the group stage this year, the Tunisians won 1-0 at home but Ahly hit back with a 2-1 triumph in Cairo. While the honors might appear even, they’re not. The Sfaxien win in July was a terrific morale-booster, as it ended a 78-match unbeaten run by Ahly. And Ahly’s win in the return leg was hardly emphatic. If the two results are repeated in the final legs, Sfaxien will walk away kings of Africa.
In an attempt to judge form, many people have taken note of the clubs’ past few games. Both were sharp in their last outings in their respective home leagues. Sfaxien thrashed Bizertin 4-0 while Ahly made it look easy against Mehalla, 2-0. In the Champions League semi-finals, Sfaxien hardly broke a sweat against South Africa’s Orlando Pirates, holding them to a scoreless draw in Johannesburg before finishing them off in Tunis 1-0.
ASEC, on the other hand, ran Ahly ragged in Abidjan. Ahly not only lost, they could have been mauled had striker Vincent Die Foneye scored half the seven clear-cut chances he was presented with.
The Sfax-based club is making the most of playing the final game on home soil by staging the match in Tunis s Rades Stadium whose 60,000-capacity is five times greater than Sfaxien’s home arena. But the shift from the intimidating cauldron of the 22,000-seat Taib Mhiri Stadium in the Mediterranean port of Sfax could backfire. The noise of vociferous fans carries farther in smaller stadiums.
The same fans also look scarier to the opposition because of how close they are to the pitch.
The 12-game journey that Ahly and Sfaxien have each been through in the Champions League is another indicator of what to expect. Ahly has scored 22 times and allowed six goals. Sfaxien are 13-10. They’ve lost two games apiece, each team has won only once away and both are undefeated at home.
This will be the third time a Tunisian club reaches the final of the African Champions League. Etoile Sahel got there the past two years but left with nothing to show for their efforts. Will the third time be the charm for a team from Tunisia?
It’s a close call, but tomorrow Ahly will win by a goal.
The next reading of the crystal ball may be held before the second leg on Nov. 11 – if we’re still in business.
