By most measures, it would seem the Israelis are winning the Palestinian-Israeli war. They control and colonize Arab lands, enjoy military superiority and total American support, and unilaterally define most diplomatic parameters of the conflict. Yet this may be a mistaken assessment: the Palestinians and Arabs are perhaps starting to win some battles, while Israel is losing some of its dominance. Seven events in the past five months seem to lend credence to this view. The first was Hezbollah’s ability to fight Israel for 34 days this summer, and on the 34th day to keep firing hundreds of rockets into Israeli territory. Morality and political consequences aside, this reflected a truly historic combination of political will, technical military proficiency, and a capacity to remain shielded from Israeli, Western and Arab spies and infiltrators. No Arab party had ever crossed this threshold in the century-long conflict with Zionism and Israel. The second event was Israel’s (and Washington’s) having to accept the August ceasefire resolution at the United Nations, after the United States had given Israel weeks of extra warfare to hit Hezbollah.
A determined Arab group forced Israel and the US to accept a political resolution instead of military victory, and the cease-fire resolution included measures that Israel had previously always rejected – addressing the occupied Shebaa Farms area in the context of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, rather than as occupied Syrian land, and specifying the return or exchange of Israeli and Lebanese prisoners. Israel quietly dropped its previous position that the two Israeli soldiers snatched by Hezbollah on July 12 had to be returned unconditionally. The stationing of over 20,000 Lebanese and international troops in southern Lebanon has long been an Israeli demand, but also came at a price: limiting Israel’s scope of action in Lebanon and its over flights. The third noteworthy development was Israel’s accepting a ceasefire with the Palestinians in Gaza in late November, after it had said that it would not end its attacks and would do anything required to retrieve Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, whom Palestinian guerrillas had snatched from an Israeli army post on the Gaza-Israel border. The juxtaposition of events in Lebanon and Gaza this summer was powerfully telling.
Israel’s once vaunted military prowess and frightening deterrence failed to stop Lebanese and Palestinian fighters from abducting three of its soldiers from border areas. Israel’s subsequent severe, savage military attacks and mass punishment of civilian populations failed to make the Arabs cough up the soldiers. Weeks or months later, Israel swallowed its words, put away its ultimatums and threats, and accepted cease-fires in both cases. The fourth important recent development is that Israel has been unable to stop the firing of rudimentary Qassam rockets into its southern region by Palestinian militants. Israeli military might and intelligence capabilities – along with killing some 400 Palestinians since June – have not stopped determined young men from firing these rockets into Israel. The fifth striking incident occurred in early November, when Israel had pinned down a group of Palestinian fighters in a mosque in Beit Hanun in northern Gaza, expecting them to surrender or be killed.
Instead, over 200 Palestinian women broke through the siege, swarmed the mosque, and provided cover for the young fighters to escape, with two women being killed and a dozen injured. Battle-lines that had been defined by Israeli troops fighting a handful of Palestinian youths were transformed into the Israeli Army’s finding itself helpless – and defeated – in the face of the Palestinian civilian population. The sixth incident happened in mid-November, when the Israeli Army telephoned the home of a Palestinian militant in Jabaliya refugee camp in Gaza and warned the inhabitants to leave the three-story residential building because it was going to be destroyed.
Instead of fleeing as they had usually done, hundreds of civilians swarmed into the residence, stood on the rooftop, and dared the Israelis to kill them all. Faced with civilians who no longer feared death, the mighty Israeli killing machine and its befuddled political leaders suddenly became much less impressive – for they had lost much of their capacity to intimidate. The seventh incident, earlier this week, was Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, where it was announced that Israel would release $100 million of withheld Palestinian tax revenues and remove some checkpoints in the West Bank. Reversing his previous refusal to make such gestures or meet with the Palestinians before Shalit was released, Olmert met, talked and made concessions to the Palestinians with Shalit nowhere in sight. History will clarify if these events indeed signify a change in the military or political balance of power in Arab-Israeli confrontations. We must hope for now that the trend these events signify will open the eyes and brains of Arab and Israeli leaders who have relied mainly on military force to achieve their goals, and instead propel them toward negotiations as a more effective and humane route to achieving their rights, and living a normal life in peace, security and mutual recognition.
Rami G. Khouri writes a regular commentary for THE DAILY STAR
