Arabs using nuclear race to pressure US on Iran, analysts say
Cairo: The pursuit of peaceful applications of nuclear power is now figuring high on the national agendas of several Arab governments since Gamal Mubarak, deputy chairman of the National Democratic Party (NDP), announced in September that Egypt’s strategic energy needs could be met with the construction and use of several nuclear reactors.
Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Oman and Bahrain – had announced at the closing of their annual summit in December that they would consider developing a shared nuclear program for peaceful purposes.
And late last week, Jordan s King Abdullah II told an Israeli newspaper that his country wants its own nuclear program.
In an interview with the daily Haaretz, Abdullah said his desert kingdom, which borders Israel and has a peace agreement with it, wanted nuclear power for peaceful purposes and was already discussing its plans with western countries.
The rules governing the nuclear issue have changed in the entire region, the Jordanian leader told Haaretz, noting that Egypt and several Gulf states have declared their desire for a nuclear program. Though Jordan would rather see a nuclear-free Middle East, he said, every desire we had on this issue has changed.
The Jordanian monarch’s statements also came fast on the heel of similar remarks made by President Hosni Mubarak
On Jan. 4, Mubarak warned that Iran’s continued attempts to develop military nuclear capabilities will have serious repercussions on the region.
Mubarak’s comments came on the sidelines of his meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in the resort town of Shaem El Sheikh.
The President hinted that Egypt might begin developing nuclear weapons if Iran were to develop a weaponized nuclear program and then ally itself with Israel, which reportedly possesses such armaments.
Egypt would have to think about defending itself if such a scenario were to arise, he added.
“No one in the region has weapons of mass destruction but [Israel], and now Iran has started, he said in an interview with Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot as reported by Al Ahram newspaper.
“Maybe when Iran starts you might some day be friends and work against us. I must see about defending my country and others will think the same.
Mubarak was alluding to a nuclear arms race that might set off in the region if Iran continues to develop military nuclear power.
He said “Either weapons of mass destruction will spread in the region or disappear from the region. I have previously spoken to the Israeli side about this and they said they will consider it when there is peace.
“But for Iran to have weapons of mass destruction and we remain watching? This situation threatens us because it might encourage any country to use these weapons to enforce its will on the region, and that is a danger to the entire region.
The official Egyptian viewpoint has always been to try and clear the Middle East from nuclear weapons and Mubarak reiterated this position in the interview.
“We want the area completely free of weapons of mass destruction, the President said.
A senior diplomatic source confirmed to The Daily Star Egypt that this is the official Egyptian position on the issue of nuclear weapons in the region and stressed that the President did not state that Iran already possessed these weapons.
But there is a clear sense of apprehension among Arab states of Iran’s intentions vis a vis nuclear power, particularly in light of its increased involvement in Arab neighbor Iraq.
“What happens after Iran develops its nuclear power? What will the region be like with a nuclear country? Add [Israeli Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert’s recent comments that Israel a nuclear country, and you have a nuclear arms race in the region. With the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) intent to start a nuclear program, then we have a nuclear region. And this is a very sensitive region, Ashraf Keshk, an expert on Gulf affairs told The Daily Star Egypt.
Recently, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit said: “The possession by some countries of peaceful nuclear technology, or some of stages of the nuclear cycle, or carrying out some peaceful nuclear activities, does not mean by any means that it can call itself a nuclear state. Nuclear states are only those that have military nuclear capabilities.
His comment was a response to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent statements – following the United Nations decision to impose nuclear sanctions on Iran – that Iran was a “nuclear country , whether the world liked it or not.
However Abul Gheit also called for an end to what he termed nuclear double standards, saying “The negligence of certain Western countries over questions of non-proliferation, and the fact that they permit some states to acquire a nuclear capacity while preventing others from doing so, is nothing but double standards. That must stop. It is known that Israel has a nuclear capability that is not subject to any control by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Egypt does not oppose the peaceful use of nuclear power, and has recently restarted a nuclear program that had been shelved for two decades.
An Egyptian diplomatic source had previously told The Daily Star Egypt “Egypt supports any peaceful nuclear program as long as it adheres to the international standards defined by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and does not seek military nuclear power.
Keshk believes that there are many reasons behind the foreign minister’s response, chief among them is Egypt’s desire to rid the region of nuclear weapons.
In addition, he said “The statements are related to Egyptian discussions with the Gulf states. Gulf security is very important to Egypt, especially with economic projects under discussion, as shown by Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif’s recent visit to the area. And the Gulf States are concerned about Iran.
Keshk stressed that Egypt wanted to comment on the Iranian statements before any other country from outside the Middle East in order to show that countries from within the region were taking the initiative. He also said that despite the tension in Egyptian-Iranian relations, there are some channels of communication open between the two states.
Iran, says Keshk, feels threatened by the presence of US troops in the Middle East and so it wants reassurance and a comprehensive settlement from the US that will guarantee its security and the continuation of its role in the region.
He continued: “The Iranians are inextricably involved in the region and the US cannot end that with a strike or sanctions.
The solution, Keshk believes, lies only in “negotiations and they will take years, not a month or two. American-Iranian relations are complicated, not only on the nuclear front. There are other issues, so if a comprehensive deal is reached, maybe things will improve for the region.
As for Egyptian-Iranian relations, Emad Gad, an expert on international relations at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, previously told The Daily Star Egypt that progress between Egypt and Iran cannot be predicted with certainty because Iranian President Ahmadinejad is the kind of person to make one statement today and a contradictory one the next.
“I’m pessimistic that relations will be strengthened, Gad told The Daily Star Egypt, “because of Ahmadinejad. He’s conservative, dogmatic and narrow-minded. He can reverse things with a statement. He might revert on anything that happens.
Ties between Egypt and Iran have been strained since the Islamic revolution of 1979 when late President Anwar Al-Sadat allowed the overthrown Shah of Iran to seek refuge in Egypt. Diplomatic ties between the two countries officially broke off in 1980 to protest the 1978 Camp David Peace Accords between Egypt and Israel.
Ties between Iran and Jordan have also been on ice, particularly in light of the Hashemite Kingdom’s staunch support for Iraq during the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war
. Abdullah II recently caused a furor when he said there was a possibility of a Shia crescent stretching from Iran to Lebanon (linking with the Shia Hezbollah) threatening Arab interests.
Shlomo Brom, a researcher at Israel s Institute for National Strategic Studies and former head of strategic planning for the Israeli military, said Abdullah was likely not serious about developing a nuclear program. The Jordanians don t have the resources, he said.
Brom said the Jordanian king was probably trying to make the point that if Iran, which is moving ahead with its nuclear program despite international protests and U.N.-imposed sanctions, is allowed to become a nuclear power, then a regional nuclear race will be unavoidable.
Abdullah might be saying that if the Iranians aren t prevented from getting a nuclear program, Jordan and everyone else will want one of their own, Brom said.
The US State Department indicated Friday that it had no objection to a peaceful Jordanian nuclear program.
