It has been clear lately that Washington has taken a new approach in dealing with the issues of the Middle East region. The Bush Administration that has long abandoned the use of diplomacy and was being directed by a dogmatic ideological doctrine is now shifting towards diplomatic negotiations with countries in the region.
It is now attempting to give the peace process a push forward.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice latest visit to the region and her meeting with the Arab Quartet (Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Jordan) before the Riyadh Summit made it clear that Washington is now committed to a new route in dealing with the issues of the region.
A closer look at what’s happening now inside Washington and the changes undergoing the Middle East region could help understand the Bush Administration sudden shift to diplomacy. First, since the democrats won a majority in both houses of Congress, they have waged series of accusations and criticisms to the Bush Administration policies that has lead to disasters in the region and especially in Iraq, urging the administration to start withdrawing American troops in Iraq and set a deadline for withdrawing all their troops.
Inside the House last week, Democrats succeeded in passing a bill with a 218 to 212 vote linking appropriations allocated to Iraq with a deadline for withdrawing troops by September 2008, the legislation that President Bush said would veto if it reached his desk.
The Senate too aborted Republican efforts to strip the military spending bill of any binding measures of military withdrawal.
With the democrats at their back combined with a rising popular discontent with the US policies in Iraq and a deteriorating Iraqi scene and inability to secure stability and put an end to the prevailing violence, the Bush administration found itself cornered and was in need of a new strategy that would lessen pressures from Congress and gain back old allies in the region.
That in addition to fear that the Iraqi case would have its bearing on presidential elections in 2008; republicans became aware that if they continue to follow their strict policies in the region against popular will, they might not have a chance in the next presidential elections.
Secondly, the absence of US diplomacy in the region amidst an atmosphere of regional instability- mounting violence in Iraq, instability in Lebanon and Palestine and possible US attacks on Iran- some regional actors started developing initiatives to help regain stability in the region, Saudi Arabia call for the convention held in Mecca that resulted in the Mecca Accord for Palestinian National Unity Government in February is one example. The Bush administration seems to have realized that to save its own interests in the region it should not distance itself from these ongoing regional diplomatic efforts.
The administration probably too needed the help of its Arab allies, and hence attempted creating a new alliance with what it refers to as Moderate Arab Countries which are mainly Sunni countries against Shiite powers and Iranian and Syrian influence in Iraq.
The Bush administration needs its old Arab allies to contain Iran especially that the likelihood of a military attack on Iran in the near future, though not wholly discarded, however is falling back as the Bush administration is having hard time justifying its policies in the region to the Congress and to the public.
In this context, the sudden shift to diplomacy and the American administration efforts to revive the middle east peace process, with the Arab initiative proposed five years ago as a starting point for negotiations, seems like a part of a new American strategy to form an alliance with Arab countries who share the administration’s concern about the growing Shiite influence in the region.
A strategy that is meant to redress the chaos the Bush administration policies created in the region and thereby ease the pressures back home.
Sally Abd El-Moez is a political researcher and analyst who received her B.Sc. in political Science from Cairo University. Her research interests include Middle East politics, reform process in the region and American and European policies in the Middle East. She wrote this piece for The Daily Star Egypt.
