The US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan that elevated Iran to dominant power status in the Persian Gulf , have also unleashed a nascent Shia Muslim movement that is altering the political balance of power in the Middle East. Anchored by the world s only Shia nation – the Islamic Republic of Iran, and ignited by the first Arab Shia majority coalition government in Iraq, the Shia revolution is challenging decades of second-class citizenship and oppression. The rising Shia movement will not likely be placated, nor can it be ignored. Quite the opposite, it is emerging as a defining feature of the new Middle East – a new Middle East whose contours will be increasingly shaped by realignment between the Sunni and Shia, and a shift of the region’s center of gravity from the Levant to the Persian Gulf. America s support for Sunni regimes that have repressed Shiites from Lebanon to Bahrain, and the Bush administration s promotion of democracy too long deferred for the Shia, places the US in a precarious position to positively influence the Shia resurgence. US foreign policy requires an urgent course correction to support greater Shia inclusion. Failure to do so will lead to increased radicalization of the region and further deterioration of America s position in the Middle East. At the epicenter of the Shia renaissance are the twin pillars of the Persian Gulf, Iran and Iraq. Although Shias comprise less than 15 percent of the world s Muslim population, they account for half the Muslims in the Middle East, and 80 percent of the population in the strategic and oil-rich Persian Gulf (Iran 89 percent, Iraq 65 percent, Yemen 58 percent, Bahrain 70 percent, Kuwait 35 percent, Saudi Arabia 15 percent United Arab Emirates 15 percent and Qatar 10 percent). In the Near East, Shias make up 60 percent of Lebanon s population, 80 percent in Azerbaijan percent, 20 percent in Pakistan, 19 percent in Afghanistan and 20 percent in Turkey. Thus, the projection of Shia power in the Middle East is broad-based with substantial concentrations. For decades, Shia Muslims have been systematically pushed to the periphery of their economies, restricted from participating in elections and holding governmental positions. Educational opportunities have been severely limited, and books about their faith banned by some Sunni monarchists. As Vali Nasr pointed out in his book The Shia Revival, within popular Sunni culture the Shia are referred to as mosquitos in Pakistan and in Saudi Arabia it s said they spit in their food. In Lebanon, the Shia led are labeled as uncultured and popular folklore even suggest they have tails. Despite these degrading insults and the institutional barriers erected to impede their progress, the Shia are changing the face of the Middle East. Since the signature Iranian revolution of 1979, the Shia movement has grown and matured. Shia advances now threaten to upset the unholy alliance between the US and Sunni royal families that have dominated global strategic energy sources, while subjecting their own Sunni and Shia populations to grinding poverty, disenfranchisement and hopelessness. The momentum of the Shia resurgence is clearly evidenced by the following recent developments: In response to Shia protests seeking recognition as citizens in 2005, the House of Saud partially lifted the ban on Shia publications, legalized Ashoura observances, and expanded public spaces of worship in Medina to commemorate Shia Imam Husayn. Saudi King Abdulla granted a concession allowing four Shia representatives to serve in the 150 member Saudi parliament. There are no Shia cabinet ministers, high ranking police, and army or security officials in Saudi Arabia. Since Hezbollah Shia forces stunned the world by fighting Israel to a stand-off in 2006, the confessional system of allocating seats to Lebanon’s religious communities has come under renewed assault. Although Shias constitute 60 percent of Lebanon s population, they are limited to 28 seats in the 164 member Assembly of Representatives (Lebanon s national legislature). The Shia under Hezbollah has established a virtual state-within-a-state. Since the US invasion and overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan, for the first time Shia rights were recognized in the new Constitution. Karim Khalili, a Shia, now serves as the second vice- president to President Hamid Karzai, and represents the Islamic Unity Party of Afghanistan. In Bahrain, the Shias are among the most active groups in the Middle East demanding full political rights. Following Ayatollah Sistani s call for one man-one vote in Iraq in 2005, Bahraini Shia have demanding a one man-one vote system as well. The Accord Party and the Front for the Islamic Revolution in Bahrain have led the Shia struggle and boycotted rump elections. Notwithstanding these significant gains, it is the Arab-Shia surge to power in Iraq that has destabilized the fortress of the Sunni Middle Eastern monarchs. Iraq’s Shia majority-led government has undermined the Sunni royal families credibility as guardians of the true Islamic faith. Despite, Arab Sunni attempts to diminish the import of Iran s Shia republic by castigating them as Persian outsiders; the Iraq – Iran Shia alliance has transcended the Arab-Persian divide. Baghdad, once the historic citadel of Arab Sunni Islam for centuries, is now in the hands of the Shia. For the first time in decades, Shias across the Diaspora are traveling to Iraq in their millions. Ashoura, the holiest of Shia religious observances are now held at the Shias most sacred mosques in Najaf and Karbala, where Imam Hussayn was martyred in battle. Under Saddam Hussein, these observances were banned. Today, the US has no choice but to support the Maliki Shia led government in Iraq. Perhaps worse, Sunni regimes are incensed at the notion of sitting at the same negotiating table with a Kurdish President of Iraq – a people whose existence the Sunni monarchs refused to acknowledge until a short time ago. Confronted by the tidal wave of change sweeping the Middle East, Sunni royalists are attempting to strike back. Led by Saudi Arabia s extreme Sunni Wahhabist wing, with Egyptian and Jordanian acquiescence, their propaganda machines are castigating the Shia throughout the Middle East as religious heretics and apostates. In response to the Iraqi Shia majority government in Baghdad, the Sunni Arab powers are supporting and financing a reign of terror to fragment Iraq and prevent the consolidation of Shia power. Saudi mischief will prolong the suffering of the Iraqi people, but ultimately will fail to halt the Shia advance in Iraq. Incredibly, Saudi Arabia, a beneficiary of US financial and military largess for decades, now charges that the US and Iran are engaged in a conspiracy to undermine Sunni rule in Iraq. The Saudis preferred the Sunni butcher Saddam Hussein rather than a Shia led government in Iraq. Saddam was a Saudi surrogate to counter Iranian influence. in the same way that the Saudi s financed Pakistan s nuclear program to keep Iran at bay. Sunni royal families in Jordan, Egypt, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, adamantly opposed the invasion of Iraq precisely because they feared the Shia coming to power. Their worse nightmare has come true. Now, these same royal families are funding the Sunni and al-Queda insurgency. A Shia led republic in Iraq, tied to Iran poses a severe threat to Sunni authoritarian governments in the Persian Gulf. The Shia Cresent, linking Iran, Iraq and Syria to the Shia majority in Lebanon extends the arc of Shia power to the Levant. Sunni monarchists are also confronting growing internal political problems in their own countries. The rise of Shia power has given Sunni extremists, Wahhabists and al-Queda a platform to challenge the ruling royal families fitness to rule. Sunni monarchists are perfectly willing to fund and provide cover for terrorists that attack their external enemies, but what happens when the attack dog turns on its master? High profile arrest of al-Queda operatives in Saudi Arabia continues to be a concern for the House of Saud. Su
nni authoritarian governments are also increasingly confronted by their own Sunni citizens, who lack democratic rights, women’s rights and languish in a disarticulated economies dominated by oil production and foreign workers. America s dilemma in fashioning a response to the Shia revolution is complicated by its standoff with Iran. Tehran s confrontation with the US over its nuclear program is emboldening the region s Shias to stand up and demand redress to their grievances. Iran has leveraged its position in Iraq to establish a sphere of economic and political influence with the Shia majority and the Kurds that rivals, if not eclipse that of the United States. Iran s influence in Iraq has unsettled the Sunni monarchies and provoked an unprecedented level of contention between the two major branches of Islam. Although Ayatolloh Khomeini s efforts to export Iran s revolution to neighboring Sunni countries ended with his death in 1989, Tehran s ability to provide aid and support to Shia communities and mosques across the Middle East has extended Iran’s reach dramatically. Iranian support of Hezbollah in Lebanon demonstrated their ability to sustain a non-state militia, in a region in which non-state actors and militias are growing more powerful. Despite the fact that Iranians are non-Arab Persians, Arab Shia share strong religious bonds with Iran. Qum, Iran is a leading center of Shia theology and Islamic studies throughout the Middle East. International Shia scholars and millions of Middle Eastern Shia worshipers visit Iran every year. Sunni monarchists fear the rising Shia will become powerful fifth columns for Iranian influence within their borders. The US will likely view the Shia rising in the Middle East through the same windows of fear and hatred it attaches to Iran s ruling Shia clerics. That would be a big mistake, but Washington has gotten precious little right since emerging as the dominant power in the Middle East. Recently, a leading National Security Agency official testified before the US Congress that he didn t know the difference between a Shia and a Sunni, and didn t think it mattered. This statement highlights a problem that besets US foreign policy; a stunning level of ignorance about the complexities of the Middle East, and the continual embrace of authoritarian regimes that curry favor with Washington. The Shia movement is ostensibly a struggle for democratic rights and inclusion. Unlike Sunni fundamentalists, who condemn the Shia as religious heretics, the Shia simply want the freedom to practice their faith openly. The Shia are not the advocates nor the practitioners of creating a Middle Eastern caliphate. For all these reasons, America should sieze the opportunity to repair its horrible image in the Middle East by supporting Shia democratic aspirations and inclusion in building a New Middle East.
Webster Brooksis Editor of the US-Iran Peace Project Website: www.usiranpeace.comUS Iran Peace works and advocates for the normalization of diplomatic relations between the United States and Iran.
