Much is riding on tomorrow s game in Cairo between Ahly and Asec Mimosas of the Ivory Coast in the African Champions League. There are half a dozen things Ahly will lose if they lose tomorrow.
The club stands to lose its title as African champions; will lose the opportunity to be crowned an unprecedented three consecutive times; will lose out on winning the crown for an unprecedented sixth time overall (it shares the record of five with Zamalek); will lose the $1 million that goes to the winner of the championship; will forfeit a ticket to Japan for the World Club Championship; will lose the confidence it needs if it is to win this year s Egyptian league and other future championships.
At one point, Ahly was in a position in the group too good to be true. After three games, the half-way stage, the club had collected a perfect nine points, Hilal of Sudan had six, and Asec and Tunisia s Esperance one point apiece. With two teams advancing to the semi-final, Ahly could sleep walk to the next stage.
But the group went topsy-turvy after Ahly managed to lose two consecutive games to Esperance and Hilal and Asec managed to win two straight against the same teams.
As it stands, Ahly and Hilal have nine points each, Asec seven and Esperance four with one game left before the semi-finals begin. Goal difference used to be the decider when teams finished level on points, but no more.
Though tied on points, Hilal is in the lead because of its head-to-head clashes with Ahly, the 3-0 thrashing the Sudanese administered to Ahly in Omdurman offsetting their 2-0 loss in Cairo.
There are two certainties about tomorrow. Esperance will not reach the semi-finals even if its beats Hilal, and Hilal is into the semis even if it loses.
Anything else can happen tomorrow, and from Ahly s perspective, not all of them good. The worst scenario: it s bye-bye to the championship if Ahly loses.
If Ahly beats Asec and Hilal beats Esperance, then both will reach the semis but Hilal will end up in first place and Ahly second.
There are two disadvantages about finishing second. The team in such a position will have to play Etoile du Sahel of Tunisia which is sure to finish first in its group. Etoile is on fire, the only unbeaten team in the group and after five games, has yet to concede a goal.
Negative No 2 about finishing as the group s bridesmaid is that the second leg of the semi-final is played away; this also applies should the club in question reach the final. In a two-game series, the team that plays the second game at home normally holds the advantage.
If Ahly draws with Asec and Hilal wins, then again Hilal ends up on top and Ahly is second.
If both Ahly and Hilal draw in their respective games, the two are back to where they started – Hilal is first, followed by Ahly.
If Ahly ties and Hilal loses, than Ahly and Hilal end the group stage first and second respectively.
If Ahly wins and Hilal draws or loses, then Ahly enters the semis as the group s first place team, with Hilal trailing.
Logic dictates that since Ahly managed to beat Asec in Abidjan 1-0 in the first leg, it should be able to do the same, if not better, in the cozy confines of Cairo Stadium.
But home field advantage, though still important, is not what it used to be. Experienced players should be able to win on enemy territory with the same regularity as they do at home. In fact, at times your own crowd can put more pressure on you than the opposing spectators.
Ahly can use the cheers, not the jeers.
