CAIRO: Israel kept up a careful policy of ambiguous silence on Friday over accusations from Damascus that its warplanes violated Syrian airspace.
Syria said its air defences fired at Israeli warplanes flying over the northeast of the country in the early hours of Thursday and warned that it was weighing its response to the Israeli aggression .
Professor of Political Science at the American University in Cairo Walid Kazziha told Daily News Egypt that “this Israeli incursion into Syrian airspace has to be seen in the context of recent exchanges, accusations and polemics that have been taking place, especially within Israeli ruling circles where there has been a lot of discussion on Syria’s preparedness to engage in a limited conflict or maybe spur Hezbollah [in Lebanon] to irritate Israel.
Kazziha mentioned that there has been some talk in the Israeli press recently about Syria’s acquisition of weapons from Russia, specifically in missile capabilities and the air force.
“An environment has been created within Israel and this [excursion] is probably a function of internal domestic policies as they [Israeli politicians] are jockeying for position, trying to register points and appear to be the ones serving the public interest while the others are lax, Kazziha added. “Or it could have been a test case to see what Syria has and what they would do in a limited reaction.
But the Israeli government and military have stayed silent. Government officials and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, toasting the Jewish New Year with generals on Thursday, refrained from making any comment.
Israeli analysts are divided over whether the flight – still unconfirmed – was a tactic of intimidation or a reconnaissance mission; or whether silence would appease or escalate tensions.
Tzahi Hanegbi, who is close to Olmert and chairman of parliament s defence and foreign affairs committee, went public Friday to say that Israel does not want to raise tension and is not courting confrontation with Syria.
But other Israeli analysts disagreed.
If the air force did carry out such a flight, in the middle of the night without visibility … it looks like provocation to show Syria that Israel has not lost its power of deterrence, said military expert Reuven Pedatzur.
A Syrian army spokesman told the Syrian Arab News Agency news agency Thursday, “The Syrian Arab Republic warns the government of the Israeli enemy against this aggressive action and reserves the right to respond in any way it deems appropriate.
Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal said on Al-Jazeera television that “this shows that Israel cannot give up aggression and treachery.
Pedatzur maintained that the formal silence would only increase tension and runs the risk of courting an armed escalation that neither side wants.
The tension between Israel and Syria climbs to new heights every day. Pay no attention to the soothing statements. Nothing has abated on this front in recent weeks, wrote commentator Ben Caspit in the Maariv newspaper.
This is not the first time Israeli airplanes have violated Syrian airspace. In June 2006, warplanes flew over the presidential palace of Bashar Al-Assad in northern Syria while the leader was inside.
Kazziha believes the incursion could also have served as a warning message to Syria, “to let them know you are always within our reach, and expects it might not be the last time this happens.
“I wouldn’t put it beyond Israel to continue recurring entries into Syrian airspace, he said, “especially as there is talk of building a Russian military base up north in the Latakia area. So it’s not only a Syrian-Israeli dimension, there could also be an American-Russian dimension.
Tensions between the two states have always been high, and recently officials from the two countries had declared that they were preparing for the possibility of war.
However, Kazziha dismissed the idea of Israel inflating the level of attacks on Syria despite the tension between the two neighbors. “For Israel to go all out against Syria is difficult, I don’t think there is public support for it after [the war on] Lebanon, the results of such things cannot be calculated.
Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak had said last August that “Israel does not want a war and Syria, according to our estimates, does not wish for one either. The incident comes two months before a scheduled US-sponsored peace conference to be held in Washington which is supposed to bring all parties of the Middle East conflict to the table.
“If Israel pursues this [violating Syrian airspace], they are sabotaging the conference, Kazziha said, “unless they are adopting their usual tradition of isolating each front and dealing with each one alone. However, they will find Arab resistance to this method and the Palestinians are not in a position to go it alone.
He added, “The conference might end up being a Palestinian-Israeli one, but this is farfetched because the Palestinians won’t have Arab support and will be squeezed by the US and Israel to give up on their demands.
“Do the Israelis want to jeopardize this conference? Kazziha continued, “If they do, then this will be antagonistic to the US. The US will also be a victim and if you want to please the Arabs then Syria must be included.
Israel also continues to occasionally fly over Lebanese airspace as well, despite protests from the Lebanese government and UN peacekeeping forces monitoring the cease-fire.
Syria and Israel do not have normalized relations, and the last talks between them over the fate of the disputed Golan Heights seized by Israel in the 1967 war and annexed in 1981 broke down in 2000. There has been no public contact between the two states since that time. Additional reporting by AFP
