Russia s approach to a Syrian-Israeli peace process is very much a function of developments in Russo-Syrian relations.
Since the beginning of this century, Russo-Syrian ties have been making good headway in quite a number of fields. Certainly, the traditional character of historical ties between Moscow and Damascus is playing a role. But one should also not ignore the pragmatism inherent in President Vladimir Putin s foreign-policy course and in particular the promotion of interests of Russian companies in world markets, the Middle East included.
The Syrian market affords good opportunities to Russia. Whereas in the 1990s the volume of trade with Syria sharply dwindled and cooperation in a number of fields was curtailed, in the 21st century the trade turnover has been constantly growing. For the first eight months of 2007 alone it amounted to $746.9 million, which more than doubled the corresponding indicators for 2006. The main lines of cooperation are power engineering, transport, oil and gas, irrigation and the peaceful use of atomic energy.
Moscow s decision, taken in early 2005, to write off $9.782 billion or 73 percent of Syria s $13.4 billion debt, the remaining $3.618 billion to be paid off in installments, was a great boost for the development of cooperation.
Naturally, Russo-Syrian relations are not based on economic interests alone, but also security interests. On the one hand, religious extremism and terrorism are significant threats in the region for Russia. Consequently, Moscow is building cooperation with the United States and other global and regional actors. Incidentally, the secular regime in Syria is a reliable partner in this regard.
On the other hand, the way the US is operating in the region, particularly in Iraq, often only provokes fresh outbursts of terrorist activity that require that Moscow follow its own balanced course. In addition, the crisis in the system of arms control, US reliance on forceful means of resolving conflicts and other crisis phenomena in the framework of international relations demand from Russia at least a partial restoration of its military potential lost in the 1990s. In this connection, the possibilities Syria can offer, to Russian ships stationed in the Mediterranean for example, are a weighty argument in favor of developing relations with Damascus.
This in no way implies that Moscow regards everything Syria is doing with unqualified approval. Suffice it to say that Russian diplomacy has exerted a serious influence upon the Syrian leadership in order to impel it to cooperate with the UN commission investigating the murder of Rafiq Al-Hariri. Simultaneously, Russia came out against attempts to politicize the issue of an international trial.
Russia s present course with respect to Syria can by no means be defined as a zero-sum game. It is rather a course of inclusive partnership , within whose framework relations with Turkey, Israel, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other states all occupy their niche. The present-day partnership between Moscow and Damascus features many serious incentives but also a number of constraints. Note, too, that as of today Russia has virtually no enemies in the region.
In view of this backdrop, relations with Syria are also important in the context of Russia s role as one of the participants in the Middle East Quartet. The idea of holding the second Middle East conference in Moscow is not a purely Russian one; notably, it was voiced by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Intrinsic in the Russian position is an emphasis on the need to work on all tracks, including the Syrian-Israeli one, where Damascus confidence in Moscow can be very helpful.
The Moscow conference can be useful for opening a Syrian-Israeli channel. Russia sees itself as an intermediary capable of using its good relations with both Syria and Israel to open this track in the peace process. Indeed, it seems that Russia has already attempted to serve as an intermediary between Syria and Israel in recent months. Of note also are the attempts by Russian diplomacy to bring the Syrians to Annapolis and to give some weight to Syrian interests at Annapolis. But given the fact that Annapolis was so focused on the Israeli-Palestinian track, a second conference might be extremely useful from Syria s point of view. Many Russian experts believe Syria is ripe for an historic compromise with Israel.
All in all, this is not a reanimation of the old Soviet position but rather advocacy of a comprehensive settlement.
Vitaly Naumkin is president of the International Center for Strategic and Political Studies, editor-in-chief of Vostok-ORIENS journal at the Russian Academy of Science and chair of the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with bitterlemons-international.org.
