Once again, the Israelis are reducing the electricity supply to Gaza. The cutbacks are a response to increased Hamas attacks in Israel, and come despite their disproved effectiveness, and a strong warning from the Bush administration.
Tom Casey, a State Department spokesman, said We understand Israel s right to defend itself, but we do not think that action should be taken that would infringe upon or worsen the humanitarian situation for the civilian population in Gaza. Human Rights Watch said that the fuel and expected electricity cuts amount to collective punishment which is a violation of international law.
Clearly the next US President will have to deal with the worsening Israeli-Palestinian conflict. No matter who it is, they should draw on the experiences of past Presidents.
That task has been made considerably easier by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), a US government think tank, which has just published Negotiating Arab-Israeli Peace: American Leadership in the Middle East.
The USIP report is based on interviews with policy insiders in the United States, Europe, and the Middle East, who were asked what works and what doesn t in Middle East diplomacy. They came up with ten lessons for the next set of US Middle East negotiators. None of these lessons are new, but the USIP team weaves them into a serious policy document that will prove invaluable to future administrations.
The 10 lessons:
Number 1 is the simple recognition that perpetuation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict damages America s ability to build alliances for other critical challenges facing the region, such as the situations in Iran and Iraq. It also fuels instability and violent conflict in neighbouring arenas, such as Lebanon.
Number 2 is that US policy must never be defined anywhere but in Washington. Consultations with the parties must take place and policy revisions based on those consultations are inevitable, but our policy must be seen as our own.
Number 3 is that the United States must not only exploit openings but also actively encourage, seek out, and create opportunities for peacemaking.
Number 4 is that the peace process has moved beyond incrementalism and must aim for endgame solutions.
The report states that building a web of regional support is critical not only for insulating the process from rejectionist forces (eg, Iran and its allies) but as a building block for pursuing US interests in the Gulf and across the region. The report faults the Bush administration for twice failing to respond when Arab states indicated a fundamental change in policy in 2002 and 2007 with the Saudi-backed Arab peace initiative. The United States must work harder to win the support of Arab governments for our diplomatic efforts.
Number 5 is that commitments made by the parties and agreements entered into must be respected and implemented. The United States must ensure compliance through monitoring, setting standards of accountability, reporting violations fairly to the parties, and exacting consequences when commitments are broken or agreements not implemented.
This is a reference to the oft-promised settlement freeze and dismantlement of illegal outposts which seem never to happen. It also refers to America s reliance on Israel to determine whether Palestinians are sticking to their pledges of non-violence rather than using our own monitoring mechanisms (under President Clinton, the CIA did the monitoring and Palestinian suicide bombing ceased).
Number 6 is that the direct intervention of the President is vital, but Presidential assets are finite and should be used selectively and carefully.
Too direct a role runs the risk of devaluing the power of the office. Too modest a role runs the other risk of failing to capitalise on diplomatic opening. The direct involvement of Presidents Nixon, Ford, and Carter, all of whom helped lead important negotiations and conclude path-breaking Arab-Israeli agreements, is instructive in its careful calibration of purpose, process, timing, and the selective use of presidential assets.
In other words, utilise direct Presidential involvement only when Presidential intervention is almost guaranteed to produce the desired effect.
Number 7 is to build a diverse and experienced negotiating team steeped in regional and functional expertise; encourage open debate and collaboration within the government. A dysfunctional policy process should not be tolerated. US policymakers repeatedly stressed to the study group six elements of organizational success: clear lines of authority; a disciplined, diverse, and experienced team; debate; deliberation; information sharing; and proper policy planning and preparation. For much of the period under review, however, many of these elements were lacking.
Number 8 is to build broad and bipartisan domestic support and use political capital before it is too late in a presidential term. Keep Congress well informed. Cultivate close relations on Capitol Hill and with advocacy communities without being held captive to the agendas of domestic groups.
The panel believes that domestic political considerations, and the pro-Israel lobby, influence policies but do not determine them. It states that Presidential leadership is the most decisive factor. When Presidents lead in Arab-Israeli diplomacy, Congress and public opinion follow; as legislators from both parties told the study group.
Number 9 is that a successful envoy needs the strong and unambiguous support of the White House, credibility with all parties, and a broad mandate. Envoys should not substitute for meaningful diplomacy. Better a policy without an envoy than an envoy without a policy.
Number 10 is that the United States use the diplomatic toolbox judiciously and pay close attention to developments on the ground. Tools, such as economic assistance and summitry, should be used with strategic objectives in mind, not merely to buy time.
The USIP report is extremely valuable but its recommendations are hardly revolutionary. None of them would require America to abandon its friendship with Israel; in fact, all the recommendations are predicated on our strong alliance with Israel. It is that friendship-and the trust the two sides have in the other-that makes successful diplomacy possible. That is why it is the United States, and not the EU or the UN, that can broker an agreement. Only America can.
A President who sets his mind to it can end this conflict and thereby vastly enhance not only America s security but Israel s as well. The 44th President of the United States may not hold all the cards, but he or she will hold most of them. Advice to #44: Play them.
MJ Rosenberg is the Director of Israel Policy Forum s Washington Policy Center. This article is distributed by the Common Ground News Service (CGNews) and can be accessed at www.commongroundnews.org. This article has been edited for length concerns.
