It’s absurd to speak of an unprecedented 7 percent economic growth rate in Egypt at a time when Egyptians are killing each other for a loaf of bread.The government is trying to appear composed in the face of the escalating bread crisis, which has reached unprecedented levels reminiscent of what happened on January 18-19, 1977, known as the “bread riots.
Therefore, the question to ask is not whether or not Egyptians will revolt for a loaf of bread, because this nation does not see revolution as a solution to their problems, but as a form of chaos. The important question is: How will the new elite in the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), which is responsible for reforming the country’s economic policy, address the lack of basic needs?
The problem is certainly not restricted to the reselling of subsidized flour in the black market because this has been happening for over three decades but has not led to economic tensions, especially since there are no accountability procedures for smugglers and thieves.
The real problem lies in the nature of the economic measures adopted by the government to reduce subsidies on basic commodities.
At a time when the government is seeking to make a historic disengagement between the state and society, which is proving to be a very difficult surgical procedure, it has failed to come up with a social strategy to reduce the negative repercussions of economic liberalization and privatization.
Ironically, the bread crisis is both flagrant and unreasonable. While the government has been talking about raising the foreign direct investment rate to $11 billion in the past two years, it has not developed any strategic plan to make the Egyptian people benefit from these investments.
Strangely enough, we are having a bread crisis at a time when some are claiming the Egyptian economy is flourishing as one of the world’s emerging economies. Such reports published by the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are of no significance to the Egyptian citizen, whose sole concern is to have a clean and healthy loaf of bread.
How facetious it was to talk of separating production from distribution as a solution to the mismanagement of bakeries. The problem, however, is not one of endless, overcrowded bread lines, but rather of the inadequacy of managing daily production for such a large number of people, not to mention Egyptians’ bad consumption habits, which in turn influence bread production.
I don’t believe that the solution lies in dismissing the government, as some have suggested, but in the management method adopted by ministries such as the Ministry of Social Solidarity, the Ministry of Domestic Trade and the Ministry of Planning, which have displayed complete failure in simply providing an adequate loaf of bread.
There are 23,664 bakeries in Egypt, meeting the needs of nearly 80 million people, that is one bakery for every 3,380 citizens. If anything, this simple calculation reflects dire mismanagement.
Obviously the solution is not to have a bakery per citizen, but rather the number of bakeries should at least be proportionate with the population.
Otherwise, I advise people to stop eating bread and to go for cakes and gateaux – if they find any.
Khalil Al-Ananiisan expert on Political Islam and Deputy Editor of Al Siyassa Al Dawliya journal published by Al-Ahram Foundation.
