In discussing the Asian century , people talk most about the overall development of the South and East Asian countries, including China, India, Korea and Japan. The GNP of the region, which has jumped to 30 percent of the world total from less than four percent half a century ago, is maintaining the momentum of rapid development. The concept of Chindia highlights the dominant role played by China and India in this development.
Although West Asia is part of Asia, there is a dispute as to whether the Asian century includes the Middle East – a Europe-centered concept of political geography that only half a century ago was also called the Near East. This oil-rich region, dominated by Muslims, with nearly a century-old Arab-Israel conflict and the recent rise of Iran, is fundamentally different from the South and East Asian countries in political, social and economic development.
Compared with religious and ethnic relations in the Middle East, those in South and East Asian countries are less tense. Although Pakistan is also dominated by Muslims, conflicts in South and East Asia are between countries instead of religious and ethnic groups, e.g., the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan, the territorial dispute between India and China and the disputes between China and Japan over historical issues and the East China Sea. There is no doubt these conflicts of interest between two countries can at present be controlled. Therefore, in the Asian century there is far less possibility of war in the South and East Asian regions than in the Middle East.
Perhaps we can also say that there are two different Asias: West Asia and East Asia. There is also South Asia, including Pakistan, India and Afghanistan, which has some characteristics of West Asia in population structure and religious affiliation but displays obvious differences from Middle East countries due to its close geopolitical and economic relations with East Asia. Strictly speaking, South Asia is a transition region between East and West Asia in terms of both geopolitical and economic relations.
Moreover, South East Asia is on the whole closer to East Asia because of India, while southeastern countries like Singapore, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia should be categorized as East Asian in cultural and economic development.
The nuclear balance maintained between India and Pakistan, the peaceful rise repeatedly pledged by China and the lesson Japan learned from World War II on the whole guarantee that the Asian century will be characterized by Asia s economic rise and political solutions to conflicts of interest between countries. Indeed, the preconditions for ensuring an Asian century are the avoidance of war and steady economic development.
But in the Middle East we cannot see the same prospects. Although the possibility of a war between Arab countries and Israel is decreasing, it appears very difficult to avoid a new war based on complicated religious and ethnic conflicts of interest in the region. Bearing in mind the increasing impact of Shia Iran, the rise of Islamic extremists and the intervention of western Christian forces in recent years, the chances of avoiding war in the region in the Asian century are very small. In short, we shall witness an East Asia filled with the spirit of cooperation and a West Asia continuing its confrontations.
Until recently, the two Asias did not have any reciprocal relations. But dense population growth and rapid economic development in East Asia have brought about a great need for energy, while the economic powers in the region, Japan and Korea, are not energy-producing countries. The per capita energy reserve of China, India and Pakistan combined, accounting for one-fourth of the world s population, lags far behind their needs; hence their reliance on oil and liquefied natural gas from the Middle East, or West Asia.
In recent years, Japan and China have made great efforts toward diversifying energy imports, yet Russian and African oil can never meet all their needs. East Asia s reliance on energy from West Asia will not decrease in the Asian century.
In contrast, although commodities from East Asia are popular and necessary at present in West Asia, East Asia is not a source of industrial goods that are badly needed by West Asia and trade between East and West through the Silk Road and the Sea Silk Road does not involve daily necessities.
Historic Mediterranean trade routes make it possible for West Asia to survive without any relations with East Asia. As part of the flourishing economic development of West Asia in the Asian century, the Gulf countries are making efforts to diversify their unitary oil economy. Accordingly, the importance of industrial goods for West Asia may decrease. In other words, West Asia may need East Asia but it is not reliant on it.
To conclude, in the Asian century the status of the Middle East has grown.
In order to satisfy the needs of their own societal development, East Asian countries on the rise, including China and India, will strengthen their political and economic relations with Middle East countries and increase their economic input there while maintaining a pragmatic posture of sitting on the fence on Middle East political issues. Japan has been a pioneer in this aspect.
Another conclusion is that regarding energy security the East Asian countries have identical interests with the oil-importing countries of the West and even need the United States to protect oil passageways. Considering that most Gulf oil is exported to East Asia and only 10 percent to the United States, the East Asian countries will not confront the United States in the region at the risk of their energy security. Neither China, Japan or India will be as interested in political reform in Middle East countries as are western Christian countries
Yin Gang is a research professor of the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. He also serves as deputy secretary general of the Chinese Association of Middle East Studies. This article is published by Daily News Egypt in collaboration with BitterLemons-International.org.
