Qatar has hosted talks between Lebanese conflicting parties. It seems that Qatar wants to play the same role that Saudi Arabia played at the beginning of the 1990s, when it brought in Al-Ta’ef warring Lebanese sects to negotiate a new political system to end the 15-year civil war. This round of negotiation process, pundits expect, will lead to a new political system in Lebanon, since the current one, known as Al-Ta’ef Agreement, has proved inadequate to keep Lebanon integrated and homogenous.
The nature of Al-Ta’ef agreement always required a superpower that can help Lebanese politicians reach deals and overcome disputes. Since Syria withdrew its military presence from Lebanon, the intra-elite disputes have found no mediator, not to mention a consistently neutral one. The 17 month standoff, ended with a small civil war and put an end to Al-Ta’ef Agreement, limiting its legitimacy – no one would be able to rely on it.
Driven from a strong desire to transform the military might into political power, Hezbollah doesn’t want to make the Lebanese political system equally shared by Muslims and Christians. Rather, it is divided between three major groups; Sunni, Shia and Christians. For many including Shias, the demographic changes in Lebanon supports such plan. On the contrary, the Loyalists want to deprive Hezbollah from political gains after its leadership flexed their muscles over the past two weeks.
Apart from what happens in Qatar, the question is: Why traditional Arab powers such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have become so marginalized to the extent that almost the smallest Arab country takes the lead in the reconciliation process in Lebanon?
Over the last four decades, the Egyptian diplomacy has practically lost its importance to many Arab dossiers. For example, the internal conflicts in Sudan, the closest country to Egypt, has become beyond the reach of Egyptian diplomacy. The same almost happens to the Palestinian problem. Ironically, Egypt is no longer the main player in the Palestine-Israeli conflict. Syria, Jordan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and sometimes Turkey have been playing accelerating roles in this prolonged conflict.
This can be easily linked to the economic change that took place in the Arab region following the 1973 war, which has bolstered the regional role of countries with rental economies, widely known as oil-wealthy countries at the expense of traditional regional powers. Egypt has neither rental economy nor value-added economy as it had back in the 1960s. As Egypt has lost its financial capabilities, its diplomacy is sidelined.
The situation of Saudi Arabia is different. It is rich, but biased, according to some people. Since the assassination of Rafik Al-Hariri, the closest Lebanese politician to the Saudi Royal family, the relationship between Damascus and Riyadh has been clearly affected, especially after the Saudi government has chosen to support the Loyalists in their ongoing conflict with the opposition.
In addition, Saudi Arabia doesn t want to experience another failure in mediating regional conflicts, particularly after it failed in the reconciliation of the Palestinian factions. In the Lebanese conflict, both Egypt and Saudi Arabia are seen by opposition as a part of the problem, because of their vehement support to Loyalists.
Qatar seems to be different. It is economically prosperous, militarily close to the United States, politically open to conflicting parts – most importantly political Islam and Israel at the same time – and regionally supports both groups that are at logger heads in Lebanon. Unlike Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Qatar has now strong relationships with Syria, Iran, Israel and the United States. The Qatari diplomacy has multiple hats, and can reconcile between conflicting factions.
In sum, the ruling elite in Qatar know what they want.
What Qatar wants? The answer is not difficult. It has been trying to be the center of the new Middle East. It accommodates, regardless of its limited size on the map, the biggest American military base in the region, the controversial Al Jazeera satellite channel, outspoken human rights activists such as Saad Eddin Ibrahim, a regional foundation for democracy, a dialogue between the believers of Abrahamic faith, and moderate political Islam figures such as Sheikh Yousseif Qaradawi. In brief, Qatar has turned to be a shelter for Americans, Jews, Islamic fundamentalists, democrats, etc. Now it wants Al-Doha to be the center of conflict resolution in the Arab World.
In the past, the name of Cairo was associated with a number of famous negotiations, agreements and accords. Now Al-Doha will replace Cairo, Al-Riyadh, Al-Ta’ef, Rabat, etc. This will not definitely please Egypt or Saudi Arabia. However, as there is old and new Europe, we too will experience old and new Arab region.
