OSLO: This year s Nobel Peace Prize could go to a human rights activist in China or Russia to put the spotlight on the situation in those countries, experts suggested a week before the laureate is announced.
Chinese dissident Hu Jia and Chechen human rights lawyer Lidiya Yusupova are seen as strong contenders this year, as 2008 marks the 60th anniversary of the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
The announcement will be made in Oslo on October 10, and with the names of the 197 nominees a well-kept secret, pundits can only speculate.
The prize this year will finally go to a Chinese dissident and I believe that the most likely is Hu Jia, perhaps together with his wife, predicted Stein Toennesson, director of the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo.
Nineteen years after awarding the prize to the Dalai Lama, the five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee could choose to send a stinging reminder to the Chinese regime to stick to its vow to improve human rights after the Beijing Olympics.
Hu is an ardent campaigner for civil rights, environmental protection and AIDS victims in China. He is currently serving a three-and-a-half year prison sentence for subversion.
Beijing has already voiced its opposition to such an honor for Hu, as is the case each time a Chinese dissident is mentioned as a possible contender for the prestigious prize.
Among the other regime opponents seen as potential winners are Wei Jingsheng, Gao Zhisheng and Rebiya Kadeer, who represents the Uighur Muslim minority.
The Chinese government got away with everything a bit too easily. If they (the committee) dare to do it, this is the right time, said Janne Haaland Matlary, a political science professor at Oslo University.
She said that after Beijing s successful mounting of the Olympic Games, now could be a golden opportunity to underline that its human rights abuses are not acceptable .
Geir Lundestad, the influential secretary of the Nobel committee, has in the past said that sooner or later the Chinese question must be tackled.
But the five independent committee members could also instead choose to turn world attention to Russia by selecting Lidiya Yusupova, Matlary said.
Clearly Russian domestic politics is far from democratic, far from respecting human rights, far from liberal, she said, recalling the Kremlin s use of military force against Georgia in August.
Yusupova, the former head of the Russian rights group Memorial in Grozny, collated information and statistics about human rights abuses such as torture, kidnapping and executions across Chechnya.
The information helped lead the European Court of Human Rights to find Moscow guilty of numerous human rights abuses.
Niels Butenschoen, a researcher at the Norwegian Center for Human Rights at Oslo University, said however he did not believe the committee would choose to stigmatize either Russia or China.
That would be targeting a specific geographic area at a time when you need a laureate who reflects the global nature of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, he told AFP.
And it could have the opposite effect of the one desired, in these two countries which are already at odds with the United States, he added.
Other names circulating as possible laureates are Vietnamese Buddhist monk and democracy advocate Thich Quang Do, Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, former French-Colombian hostage Ingrid Betancourt and Cuban dissident Oswaldo Paya.
An organization such as the Cluster Munitions Coalition (CMC) could also be honored, after more than 100 countries reached agreement to ban cluster bombs, which are particularly harmful to civilians.
Also mentioned are deposed Pakistani judge Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the organization Human Rights Watch, Finnish mediator Martti Ahtisaari, activist rockers Bono and Bob Geldof, as well as the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) at a time when world food prices are soaring.
Last year, the prize went to former US vice president Al Gore and the UN panel on climate change IPCC.
The 2008 laureate will receive a gold medal, a diploma and 10 million Swedish kronor ($1.42 million, ?1.02 million). -AFP
