JERUSALEM: After a month of haggling, Tzipi Livni, appointed to replace outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, announced last week that she has not been able to form a coalition government to support her rule. “Let the people choose their leaders, she said instead, calling for early elections likely to take place in February of next year. Most observers called her decision a huge blow to peace. Livni’s inability to create a coalition government sends more than just the message of snap elections. It tells us that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas may not have a partner for peace in Israel’s government after all.
Israel’s political system is a notoriously complicated one, with a large number of small parties effectively preventing any one party from winning a majority of the Knesset s 120 seats. In order for any government to survive, they must create an often unstable coalition with small parties with whom they do not necessarily have much in common with. This requires sacrifices on their part for a precious few seats. PM Olmert’s Kadima party succeeded in 2006 in building a coalition that included Labor, a large centre-left political party, and Shas, a right-wing ultra-orthodox faction with 12 seats. This time around, Labor again agreed to join a new coalition. Shas, on the other hand, demanded a large budgetary increase of 1 billion shekels ($261 million) in return for its support. More controversially however, it also asked for guarantees that Livni would not discuss the future of Jerusalem in talks with Palestinian negotiators. Other small parties such as the Pensioners Party and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) followed Shas lead, leaving Livni with little hope of engaging them as potential partners. Right-wing party Likud also refused to join the team. Its current leader, former PM Benjamin Netanyahu, has openly sworn off the Annapolis Agreement altogether in favor of a joint economic development program in areas where the borders of Israel and Palestine meet. His infamous “three no’s remain: no withdrawal from the Golan Heights, no discussion of the status of Jerusalem, and no negotiations under any preconditions.
In Israel’s complicated political system, Israeli members of Knesset (MKs) technically have 21 days from Oct. 29 to put forward an MK who they believe can create a coalition government. Needless to say, if Livni could not do it, then it is doubtful that anybody else can. But of course, it must be considered as a possibility. Hence, the following potential scenarios now present themselves, none of which are palatable to the Palestinians. Either Israel is ruled by an unstable coalition of unwilling partners who will not discuss the status of Jerusalem, one of the major issues at the heart of future Palestinian-Israeli peace. Or, snap elections take place, with victory for one of two likely winners, Kadima or Likud.
Still, 90 days in politics is a long time, and a lot could change on the Israeli domestic front. Barring a sizeable swing in favor of left-wing parties, even a victorious Livni would still have to rely on the support of Right-wing or ultra-orthodox religious groups. Unfortunately, most of them are deeply opposed to the creation of a Palestinian state and handing back occupied east Jerusalem to the Palestinians. If Likud were to win, Netanyahu would find the support of such right-wing parties much easier to gain, but of course, a marriage of such parties would hardly elicit a positive or hopeful response from the Palestinians.
Palestinian affairs have also affected the outcomes of Israeli national elections before. Many argued that the hawkish Netanyahu’s victory against the seemingly ‘dove-ish’ Shimon Peres in the 1996 prime ministerial elections was aided by Hamas-owned suicide attacks in retaliation for Israeli incursions and assassinations. An increase in instability in Palestine is likely to shift Israeli public opinion even further right. And as always, transgressions are often overlooked when standing in the shadow of fear.
In the meantime, however, and despite the uncertainty following Livni’s call for new elections, Palestinians are forging ahead with unity talks amongst Palestinian factions, mainly Fatah and Hamas. Israel and Hamas’ shaky truce continues to be maintained. And President Abbas’ Palestinian security forces have been deployed in several large Palestinian towns, including, most recently, Hebron. These forces are attempting to improve security and stability, as well as to deny Hamas the possibility of extending its control over the West Bank.
Hopefully Palestinians will continue in this course. If Labor does not lose as much ground as it is projected to, and if Livni, with her own personal strengths, is able to convince the Israeli public to elect her party, they might just be able to shift the dynamics enough to give the likes of Shas and UTJ less power to demand such concessions from the major parties.
Peace is the only acceptable conclusion to this conflict and Livni alone will not do as a partner. As Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said, “We do not want to make peace with one faction in Israel. We want peace with all Israelis.
Nadia Awadis an analyst and researcher at MIFTAH. In the past she has served as assistant producer at MBC/ Al Arabiya News. This abridged article originally appeared MIFTAH.org and is distributed with permission by the Common Ground News Service (CGNews). The full text can be found at www.miftah.org.
