LONDON: Goldman Sachs and UniCredit were the most accurate forecasters for average 2008 oil prices at the start of the year according to the Reuters oil poll.
Last year was uniquely difficult for forecasters, with the largest oil price swing ever and high volatility across financial markets.
Oil started the year by hitting $100 for the first time in futures market history and soared to a peak above $147 in July, partly due to strong demand from emerging markets such as China. Crude then plunged below $40 in December as the global economic downturn ate into demand.
In the Reuters analyst survey published on Jan. 25 last year, Goldman Sachs forecast US crude would average $95.48 a barrel in 2008. Goldman had the smallest diversion from the actual average of about $99.70.
Similarly, UniCredit s forecast in the January 2008 poll for $95 for North Sea Brent was the closest to the actual average of about $98.50. UniCredit was also the most consistently accurate provider of one-month forecasters for major currencies last year.
Goldman and UniCredit declined to comment and asked for the names of the analysts not to be published.
In the latest Reuters survey published on Thursday, UniCredit forecast both U.S. crude and Brent would average $55 in 2009.
Goldman Sachs forecast the average price lower at $45 for US crude and $43.5 for Brent as demand would continue to fall, resulting in increases in oil inventories in industrialized countries.
Oil demand would decline by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2009, with the OECD accounting for a large part of the fall, Goldman Sachs commodities research team, led by Jeffrey Currie, said in their latest research note published in mid-December.
Oil supply cuts are unlikely to prevent OECD inventories from building to full storage by February … either further OPEC cuts will be required to balance the market or prices will need to decline further to force Non-OPEC producers to shut-in production, Goldman said.
Goldman Sachs energy equity research team, separately led by Arjun Murti, last year said crude oil might hit $200.
Although the price was not achieved, Murti was known for his 2005 prediction of oil s spike to $100.
