CAIRO: Last week it seemed obvious that Arabs had split into two camps.
On one side were the radicals meeting in Doha, surprisingly headed by Qatar and joined by countries like Iran, Syria delegates from Hamas, all famous for publicly calling to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, or temporarily suspending diplomatic ties with Israel and the US.
On the other side, meeting simultaneously, was the moderate camp headed by Egypt and joined by countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan, which are keen on negotiating a peaceful solution between Israel and the Palestinians.
The general atmosphere was not encouraging. Never before in our recent history have differences between Arab states been so obvious. Although disagreements have always existed – both publicly and behind the scenes – at least they all occurred under one roof.
The day before the moderate states were to meet in Kuwait for an economic summit on Jan. 19, a local newspaper quoted Secretary General Amr Moussa as saying, “I’m depressed on its front page.
Other newspapers offered similar headlines that reflected the general Arab mood. The opening note of the host, Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Al Sabbah, highlighted the horrible destruction of Gaza, urging the Arabs to come together and put an end to Palestinian suffering.
The following day, the mood was no different. During a Q&A session with Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Seniora, a Kuwaiti journalist, instead of asking a question, started describing the sad, weak state of the Arab world, how Arab leaders’ hands were tied while Palestinians are being massacred by the hundreds, and how far we have sunk compared to the Golden Age of Islam when Arabs fought with their swords in every corner of the world.
“Let’s revive pride to Islam and to ourselves, the journalist concluded, “let’s take our rotten arms that we never dared to use, and fight; let’s wipe out Israel.
His words were so passionate and eloquent that suddenly the hall turned euphoric, drowning out the journalist’s words in applause and screams. The half-empty hall became overcrowded in seconds, and you could actually see tears in the eyes of some, mine included. My heart even started pounding, perhaps out of rage, sorrow, or disappointment, but I knew that at that very moment, everyone in the hall would have marched towards Israel to fight, with what and how didn’t matter.
I knew that if I were in Mr. Seniora’s shoes, who was still at the podium, I would have called my armed forces that very second and declared war.
But a few moments later, I paused and was shocked at my own reaction more than anything else. I realized how emotions can make you irrational, vulnerable and easily manipulated. I have never been pro-war and never will be. Interestingly, almost all the people in that hall shared my view. After all, we are all here in Kuwait supporting the moderates, not in Qatar with those I would describe as the radicals. Yet why were we so moved by these words? Quite simply, because we are all Arabs, and every true Arab with no exception, likes to hear these speeches. We all like to think of ourselves as strong and able to fight back aggressors, and defend our brothers and sisters all over the world.
But then again, we have to be realistic. That’s the difference between some leaders and the rest of us.
What have the radicals accomplished?
Being realistic means we have to accept the fact that Israel exists and will continue to exist. The problem with Iran and its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, is that they do not want to accept this geopolitical fact. They undoubtedly know that Israel will never disappear, but they have to keep claiming that to score points with their own people, and with people in other countries to get them to turn against their own leaders who do not share their vision.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, mentioned more than three years ago and repeatedly afterwards that Israel should be wiped off the map. No one can deny the fact that he gained the admiration of many in the Arab world, but again we should pause and think twice. If he’s really sincere, why didn’t he even try to live up to his promise? What better opportunity than the current attack on Gaza? While Israel was at war with Hamas, Hezbollah could have started another war in the north; even better, the US is involved in two different wars – both rejected by the majority of Americans – and facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
So what is Mr. Ahmadinejad waiting for? Another 70 years for such an opportunity to come again? Or maybe to win the elections in June and try in the next term? The fact is that he never intended to go to war or to wipe Israel off the map. The West should have never taken him seriously; and more importantly the Arab people should never allow such empty rhetoric to manipulate them.
Now after four years in power, what has Mr. Ahmadinejad accomplished? The poor who elected him in the hopes of a better life are poorer, and the rich who can help provide a better life for the poor are also poorer. His country is isolated from the world due to UN sanctions, and according to many analysts Iran’s economy is on the verge of collapse if the price of oil, now at $42 per barrel, remains below $75. Recent reports have emerged that the popularity of Mr. Khatami – Iran’s moderate ex-president – is rising through the roof, even without announcing his intention to run in the upcoming elections. All this threat of destruction, for what? Simply to score some cheap points with some empty words.
On the international front, Mr. Ahmadinejad has supported Hamas and Hezbollah with funds and arms. Both groups have engaged in battles with Israel, but what did they accomplish? How many Israelis did they kill? In fact, in many instances they never hesitated to commit the major sin of killing fellow Muslims whenever their authority is challenged, such as in Lebanon in November 2007, when the Lebanese government tried to seize control of its national telecom network from Hezbollah; and in Gaza in July 2008, when Hamas seized control of the city, executing Fatah’s soldiers and throwing them off rooftops.
Whether the conflict is with other Arab factions or directly with Israel, the outcome has always been to Israel’s advantage while Arab losses total in the thousands of lives and billions of dollars.
Those who believe that the Arabs can revive their Golden Age and conquer the world with their swords have to think again. Back then, we only needed faith and bravery to win a war; now wars are operated digitally thousands of miles away from battlefields where neither faith nor bravery are in the equation. In fact, you can lack both and still win a war by the push of a button. The unfortunate reality is that Arabs are trailing in these military technologies by tens of years. Those who believe that if Arabs unite and strike Israel as one, they can wipe Israel off the map also have to think again. Israel itself is not the problem. People seem to forget the Israel’s patron, the United States, will never allow it to vanish, and neither will Europe or the UN.
In the 1973 war, Egypt and the Arabs did everything right. Perfectly synchronized attacks from Egypt and Syria were orchestrated; an oil embargo was secretly planned two months before the attack and announced a few days after the war started. When it finally seemed that the Arabs were winning the war, the United States intervened with major re-supplies and within a few days, the balance was back to Israel’s advantage. What the Arabs need to understand is that regrettably they cannot prevail over Israel by the use of force, at least not under the current circumstances. History has shown us that Arabs lost land in every war they fought against Israel, and only gained land with peace. There is no shame in that; victories can also be achieved through peace.
The Moderates
Given Israel’s military might and its consistent violation of UN resolutions, one might ask another question: What prevents Israel from wiping Palestin
e off the map? Is it a fear of Hamas? Or is it Israel’s humaneness that prevents it from killing women and children?
In retaliation for a bunch of tin cans thrown at Israel’s backyard, the casualty ratio on the last assault on Gaza and Hamas, which involved ground troops, was 1 to 100. That answers my first question. Over 500 of the 1,300 dead Palestinians were women and children, and that answers my second question.
Israel undoubtedly wishes to wipe out Palestinians, exactly the way we Arabs wish Israel never existed. But as strange as it may sound, what is truly deterring Israel is the good relationship between the United States and Arab countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. It’s the gas and trade agreements with some Arab countries, and more importantly, it’s the Arab-Israeli and Arab-US diplomatic ties that allow Arab countries to sit on negotiating tables and relentlessly negotiate a fair settlement with Israel so that Palestinians can finally live in peace.
American support for Israel is not an enigma; Israel is simply the only truly democratic pro-US country in the midst of a region that is of a great strategic importance to the US. The only way for Arab countries to undermine Israel’s importance to the US is to be of greater value to the US.
The Arab saying “the enemy of my enemy is my friend should in fact be “the friend of my enemy must be my friend, especially when it’s the world’s most powerful country. And it seems to be working.
On January 9, 2009 the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution condemning Israel. This is probably the first anti-Israeli resolution to pass without a US veto in maybe 35 years. The US abstained. Since 1972, the US had vetoed over 40 UN resolutions condemning Israel. This vote by all counts is considered a great diplomatic victory for Arab countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who carry enough weight to pressure the US not to veto such a resolution. According to Israeli officials cited in the international media, the US abstention is “alarming, “depressing and “might be a turning point in the US-Israeli relationship.
So ironically, the reasons why leaders like President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, and King Abdullah of Jordan are being accused by their own people of being traitors are the same reasons why Israel has been defeated in the UN, and a week later decided on a unilateral ceasefire.
It was not because of Hamas’ ineffective Qassam (so-called) rockets; neither was it because of Iran’s hollow words. Ironically, those who are accused of being traitors to the Palestinian and the Arab cause are the ones who chose to save Palestinian lives at the expense of boosting their own image in their home countries. Ironically, those who were accused of being traitors are the same ones truly mourning the deaths of their Palestinian brothers and sisters, while the deluded Hamas are celebrating their so-called victory over Gaza’s ruins.
Rahim ElKishky is the CEO of Information Technology & Services CO. He sits on the board of several other companies, including EMS-International Herald Tribune/Daily News Egypt. ElKishky holds a BA in Political Science from the American University in Cairo and an MBA in General Management from Boston University.
