Nothing represents the absurd reality on the ground in Gaza better than the scene that has unfolded two weeks after Operation Cast Lead ended. Hamas is still shooting rockets, the population is in anguish, Hamas activists have housed some of the homeless in relief tents – they are refugees, after all – and all the while hundreds of trucks loaded with food and supplies for the benefit of Palestinian society keep entering the Gaza Strip.
The United Nations is there, and the entire international community is trying to implement both a humanitarian aid operation and a blockade that stops the smuggling of weapons and especially rockets and long-range missiles. We are talking about one of the smallest semi-sovereign areas in the world: about 40 km long and 6 to 14 km wide. Gaza and its population are totally dependent on outside help in every aspect of life, from borders to UNRWA to food itself and electricity supplies. The entire international community is trying to nurse Gaza back to health and still all the forces in the world can t succeed in pressuring Hamas to stop the terrorist activity that has become a strategic threat to Israel.
This is the situation that greeted George Mitchell. He is the envoy of a president who made a commitment to Israeli-Palestinian peace, yet the situation has never been so unfavorable for a final settlement. Mitchell has reservations about Israel. It was his report after his first visit to Israel and the territories in 2001 that placed the blame equally on Israel and the Palestinians for the outbreak of the second intifada. Yet he himself described the current situation as very complex even before he came to the region.
Who wouldn t describe the situation as complex ? Was there any other period in the past when the situation wasn t complex? Still, this time around it seems to reflect a hopeless set of conditions: Gaza is chaotic and completely at the mercy of Iran and the Damascus leadership, even as it is sustained by convoys of humanitarian aid. The West Bank ironically is in better shape on the ground than at any time in the past decade. Yet the Abbas regime is clearing holding on because of its cohabitation with Israeli security forces.
It could be argued that nothing will be gained by continuing to pursue the Annapolis framework and trying to negotiate a shelf agreement. Hence it might turn out that a new Israeli government led by the Likud after the coming elections will generate hope for a fresh start – this time not through an all-out final status track, but rather an attempt to set reachable goals and work sincerely toward implementing them. The notion that there are good Palestinians and bad Palestinians and that we should strengthen the good guys while engaging the bad guys and trying to unite them is exactly what it sounds like: mumbo jumbo.
In a report published last weekend by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, Dan Diker and Khaled Abu Toameh revealed explosive information. Salam Fayyad in his role as interior minister of the Palestinian Authority is paying the salaries of Islamic Jihad and al-Aqsa Brigade terrorists in Gaza and the West Bank as well as doling out PA money to somewhere between 6,000 and 12,000 operatives of Hamas security organizations. All this, in accordance with the otherwise defunct Mecca agreement for a unity government. The notion that the corrupt Muhammad Dahlan will again take control in Gaza is dangerous.
So the way forward that will open to Israel if a right wing government is formed is not to go for a freeze but to stay in control in the West Bank and prepare for another campaign in Gaza aimed at completely routing the armed forces of Hamas while leaving the ideological leadership intact. This will have to be done under worse conditions than Cast Lead. Hamas gained strength among the Palestinian public in both the West Bank and Gaza after Cast Lead. This means that Iran holds the Palestinians hostage while the Palestinians hold international public opinion hostage. Israel will have to adopt a diplomatic line that creates a clear linkage between pushing back Iran and making progress on the Palestinian track.
So is there going to be a clash between the Obama administration with its envoy George Mitchell and the coming Israeli government? Not necessarily. That s because of the reality we have described. President Obama said to al-Arabiya TV that in Israel there are also people who want peace. Unfortunately, he probably meant the shrinking political left. He may learn that left wing governments were the ones that caused the greatest instability, including two wars over the past two and a half years, while right wing governments have a proven ability to make good on their policies.
Amnon Lordis editor-in-chief of Makor Rishon daily newspaper. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with bitterlemons.org.
