Never had Egypt been there before, but there we were, in 15th place in the FIFA world rankings. That was just three months ago.
Then we beat Kenya 1-0 in a friendly and. we dropped to spot No 30.
After that, we defeated Ghana in another friendly and our reward? We slipped another rung. At present, in this month of March, we occupy slot 32.
Why and how did Egypt drop 17 places when almost all of 2008 and the start of 2009 were nothing but wins, wins and more wins?
For answers, we must turn to FIFA which since introducing its seedings in 1993 has been determining where your country stands in world football s pecking order. More than once FIFA has revised how it calculates where nations stand but it’s still a complicated affair.
The importance of a match, the strength of the opponent, the significance of the championship, the results, and the number of matches are all considered.
Thus, a friendly is not nearly as important as a World Cup game, and smashing Papua New Guinea is not as satisfactory as defeating Spain. So the biggest winners are the teams who win competitive matches, especially against high-ranking opponents.
However, even if you defeat countries stronger than yourself, the rise is gradual. It s akin to tennis. Beating Rafael Nadal will not automatically elevate you to No 1 yourself.
The most important change to the ranking calculation is that FIFA no longer takes into account the last eight years of results but only four. So Egypt s decline was caused by the fact that FIFA now places more emphasis on recent results than those over the past four years. The Pharaohs slump in the table was due to less importance being placed on their results over the past years – namely our successes at the Africa Cup of Nations in 2006 and 2008.
So any team that records a major victory, like a continental championship, like Egypt s 2006 and 2008 African crowns, will drop in the rankings 12 months later if, by that time, it has not gained points in more recent matches.
When Egypt won the 2008 Africa Cup of Nations in February it was at the time in 30th place where it remained for the following two months. In May we jumped to 23, only to fall back to 24 in June. We jumped to 21 in July, 22 in September, back to 21 in October, and then enjoyed a huge surge to 16 in November. Next came our best ever showing, 15 in December. In January we had come full circle, slumping to 30.
The lesson learnt: Egypt s big climb and subsequent fall can be attributed to, first, capturing the 2008 ACN, but then the weakness of the opponents Egypt faced the rest of the year, when we were battling to gain a spot in the second and final round of African World Cup qualifications. We topped the group, yes, but one that comprised DR Congo, 95 in the world, Malawi (108) and Djibouti (186).
This would explain why it is possible to win games yet, at the same time, suffer a drop in the table. FIFA also explains why some teams lose points even though they haven t played at all. The longer it is since a match is played, the less important it becomes in the ranking. This continues until, four years later, the match no longer has any impact on the calculation. And there is a drop awaiting teams which have not played enough. Not all of FIFA s calculations make sense. Two of the factors it previously used (goals scored and home advantage) are no longer factored in, but they should be. It means that 1-0 is like 10-0 (but it isn t) and winning in enemy territory equates with winning at home sweet home (which it isn t).
Another illogical is the friendlies. Fifty percent of matches taken into account in the ranking are friendlies. These matches are important for nations hosting major championships since they do not usually have to take part in qualifiers.
While FIFA admits that host nations of major tournaments contest by and large only friendly matches for a certain period, and acknowledges that the number of friendlies is important, countries may fall in the world ranking even if they are winning their share of friendlies. Egypt hardly had time to celebrate breaking into the top 20 before it went into free fall. In consolation, it remains the best Arab country; Morocco is second best at 41, but we come third in Africa following Cameroon and Nigeria, 16 and 24 respectively.
Egypt can improve on its position in the upcoming World Cup qualifiers which begin this month. Knowing FIFA s peculiarities, Egypt might drop even further in the ranks even if we go to South Africa 2010. But should we qualify for the Word Cup, few will care where FIFA will place us.
