American engagement with Syria has started and there are positive signs.
Rogue state and axis of evil have been replaced by encouraging developments, including the meeting between the Syrian ambassador in Washington and Jeffrey Feltman of the State Department, followed by visits to Damascus by Senator John Kerry, Representative Howard Berman, Feltman and Daniel Shapiro of the National Security Council. These preliminary moves basically aim to break the ice. They find Damascus receptive, with its hand extended to Washington.
Washington, for its part, would be wise to remember three things in the months ahead. First, the Syrian leadership, despite its ideological rhetoric, can be as good a deal-maker as any. Historically, the concept of deal-making, the bazaar , originated in the still thriving covered souks of Damascus and Aleppo. Therefore: dialogue yes, dictate no.
Second, Damascus withstood eight years of Bushism and weathered the storm. It can continue to do so if it must. Granted, this will not be in Syria s interest, but neither is it in America s interest. The ball is in the American court.
Third, during the Cold War Syria maintained close ties with Moscow until the end despite pressure from the West and the Arab and Islamic worlds to disengage. Similarly, in the present Middle East cold war that pits the US, Israel and some Arab states against Iran and its friends in the region, Syria s relations with Iran, which go back several decades, might be modified but not severed. Why should they be severed? What is the quid pro quo?
Keeping this in mind, Syrian-American interests could normalize and possibly converge for several reasons. First, Damascus and Washington cooperated in the fight against terrorism even when relations were tense.
Both countries have suffered the consequences of terrorism and both realize the need to contain and eliminate it. As for Hezbollah and Hamas, they are legitimate political-military organizations, politically like any party and militarily dedicated to liberating their illegally-occupied territories. Their legitimacy was acquired through unquestionably democratic elections in their respective countries, a rarity in the region. They are delegitimized as terrorists by outside powers, based not on international standards but rather on political pressure and manipulation.
Second, America s announced intention eventually to withdraw from Iraq opens the way for genuine cooperation between Damascus and Washington. Both want a united and stable Iraq, free from undue interference by neighboring states.
Third, for cooperation to succeed in Lebanon two points must be kept in mind. For one, Lebanon is in Syria s sphere of influence and, for geopolitical reasons, Damascus has leverage in Lebanon and the relationship is asymmetrical. Then too, if Washington demands that Syria stop interfering in Lebanon s affairs, the quid pro quo is for Washington to also demand that Israel stop interfering in Lebanon s affairs, i.e., withdraw from Lebanese territory and end its frequent incursions. If these steps are taken, Hezbollah s military arm becomes superfluous while its political arm is integrated into Lebanon s political process.
Finally, the Hariri court and the Syrian nuclear issue are the domain of independent international institutions and should be left alone to proceed according to rules and regulations, without political pressure and manipulation from any side.
So much for Obama – the good – and bilateral Syrian-American relations. Now come Netanyahu the bad; the Liebermans or extreme right-wingers of Israel – the ugly; and the peace process. Regarding Syria s image in Israeli eyes, four misconceptions must be corrected.
First, Syria wants the Golan returned but not at any price. The occupation has lasted for four decades; Syria has lived without the Golan and it can continue to do so if it must. Second, Syria is not oblivious to the Golan either. There are some voices claiming that Syria s interest in the peace process is tactical and that peace would undermine the Syrian regime. They claim that survival of the regime depends on the continuation of the state of war with Israel. This is absurd. Wouldn t the return of the Golan make President Bashar Assad a hero?
Third, Assad has repeatedly stated that Syria is ready to resume the peace process with Israel, stressing however that the Golan is not negotiable. It is unlikely that he would or could accept withdrawal short of the northeast shoreline of Lake Tiberius, which his father insisted on.
Fourth, a presumption is heard in Israel that only the political right can make peace. The reasoning is that the Israeli public cannot accuse the right of surrendering any part of the Land of Israel or jeopardizing its security. The precedent is the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. Yet the withdrawal from Sinai, which is not part of the Land of Israel and where the number of settlers and settlements was minimal, plus the challenge of securing Israel s long western border with Egypt and neutralizing the largest standing Arab army, cannot be compared with the large number of settlers and settlements on the Golan, not to mention its strategic importance.
In view of these points, it would appear that the mandate given to Netanyahu and the Liebermans of Israel in the recent elections has created insurmountable barriers in the Syria-Israel peace process. Why should we not believe Netanyahu, who has repeatedly asserted that the Syrian border with Israel has been Israel s safest for 35 years , therefore why fix it when the Israeli-Palestinian process is broken, needs fixing and is more urgent.
Syrian-American relations and the Syria-Israel peace process are linked.
Yet the linkage could be severed if the need arises on the Washington political scene. Obama will not seek a confrontation with the Israeli lobby complex because he would lose, as have past presidents. The likely scenario unfortunately will be a deal whereby Obama is granted a free hand in a rapprochement with Syria while Netanyahu has a free-hand in the Golan.
Elias Samo is professor of international relations at American and Syrian universities. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with bitterlemons-international.org.
