CAIRO: A recent report published by the Egyptian government s Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) contemplated whether the demographic rise of the Palestinian and Arab-Israeli populations expected by the year 2025 could contribute to a solution of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
The report, titled, “The Arab-Israeli Conflict: Could It Be Solved Demographically? estimates that by 2025, the populations of the West Bank and Gaza are expected to rise to 4.4 million and 3 million, compared to 1.8 million and approximately 1 million in 1997, respectively.
Meanwhile, the number of Arabs residing in Israel is expected to rise to 2.3 million, or 25 percent of the Israeli population, compared to 1.4 million in 2005, while the number of Jewish Israelis is expected to rise from 5.2 million to 6.5 million.
According to Abdel Aleem Mohamed, head of the Israeli research unit at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, both Palestinians and Israelis are very aware of the demographic realities.
Wary of the potential demographic imbalance, the Israeli government has sought to reaffirm Israelis’ Jewish identity and gain Arab recognition for the Jewish state, while opening the doors to further Jewish immigration, particularly from the United States and Europe, Mohamed said.
Proposals of a final solution in which Jewish settlements are exchanged for Arab-populated areas of Israel are also an attempt to address the future demographics of the area.
Mohamed added that on the Palestinian side, analysts contend that the demographic imbalance is a sign of Israel’s failure to create a Jewish majority and a failure of Zionism as a whole. “Israel killed [about] 1,400 Palestinians in Gaza [in the last conflict], but Palestinian women had just as many children during that time.
However, whether the demographic situation will pose a resolution to the conflict is still debatable, he adds.
“It’s hard to say that the conflict will be solved demographically, until these demographics turn into a political reality, Mohamed said.
It remains to be seen whether the demographic situation, particularly within Israel, will translate into effective political action and whether there will be a formation of political parties with particular programs and platforms able to gain widespread popularity.
