PARIS: In each of the 27 states of the European Union, the campaign for the just concluded elections for the European Parliament occurred in an atmosphere of indifference, with voters, candidates, and the media focusing mostly on domestic issues. Perhaps for precisely this reason, the abstention rate (an average of 57 percent), was the highest since the first vote in 1979, while the composition of the Parliament, with its right-wing majority, underwent no significant changes.
Following the 2004 elections, the European People’s Party (EPP), which regroups right and center right parties, held 288 MPs of the Parliament’s 785 seats. In 2009, it is still the first force in the new parliament, with 267 deputies out of a total of 736: the decrease in its membership is also due to the stated commitment of the British Conservatives and the Czech right party to defect from the EPP to create their own party, with a stronger right-wing line. That opens the way to the possible return for a second term of José Manuel Barroso as president of the Commission.
This situation is paradoxical, as Europe is experiencing one of the worst economic crises in its history, with falling employment and living standards and rising worries about the future. One should have expected the right-wing to be punished in countries where they govern. But that threat did not materialize. The latest returns, indeed, show quite the opposite – in France, Italy, Poland, Denmark, and even Germany, where the CDU had won a large number of representatives in the 2004 elections. Where the right is in opposition, such as in Spain and Portugal, it has improved its position.
On the other hand, the Socialist Party lost support almost everywhere, especially in countries – Spain, Portugal, Hungary, and the Netherlands – where it is in power. The European socialist party (ESP), which held 215 deputies in the old parliament, secured only 160 seats. In France and Denmark, where the Socialist Party is in opposition, it did no better. The only exception is Greece. In France, the Socialist Party is almost outnumbered by Europe Ecologie, a green coalition gathered by the charismatic Daniel Cohn-Bendit.
The liberals remain the third force of the European parliament, with around 80 deputies, less than its previous 100 members. The Greens appear to be the main beneficiaries of the elections and become the forth force: they will get around 55 seats, a gain of more than 10 seats.
Extreme parties also benefited from the elections, as well as some “eurosceptic parties. In France, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s party has been substantially weakened, but in the Netherlands, the anti-Islam party led by Geert Wilders won 17 percent of the votes, and in Austria, Denmark, Hungary, Slovakia, and even in the UK the far right did better than expected. Indeed, the far-right British National Party won its first ever seat.
But those worried about the rise of extremism in Europe should take some heart from the fact that there are many differences of views between these parties.
The predominance of the right in the future European Parliament calls for some explanation. The main reason might be the poor fortunes of social-democratic parties, which now head only eight governments in the EU, despite their efforts since 2000 to minimize their waning influence within their traditional electorate – blue-collar workers and white-collar public-sector employees, middle managers, and civil servants.
This is true for Northern Europe’s large social-democratic parties (Denmark and Sweden) but also for parties that attempted to “modernize themselves by combining socialism and liberalism (the UK and Spain), and even for Europe’s more traditional socialist parties (Belgium and France), which, despite local successes, have found it difficult to re-gain national power.
Meanwhile, those parties that intend to move left, such as die Linke in Germany, risk being overwhelmed by the radical anti-capitalist left.
It all seems as if, in the face of a crisis that calls into question decades of finance – driven capitalism and the dominance of free-market ideology, and despite widespread expectations of a revival of the welfare state, the social-democratic ideal has failed to convince a majority of Europeans that it can provide effective solutions. When it comes to managing a deep and complex crisis, indeed, European voters tend to prefer the experience of conservative politicians.
This is all the more remarkable at a time when right-wing governments embrace regulation and even state intervention – the cornerstones of leftist ideologies. At the same time, a request for transparency and a care for ecology are growing in the youngest generations across Europe, which explains the progress of the Green vote in many countries.
In short, the global economic crisis has destabilized the ideological divides that have long defined the European political scene and has created new dividing lines. These new chasms might be the most important long term outcome of the European Parliament elections.
Raphaël Hadas-Lebel, author of Hundred and One Words about the French Democracy, is a member of the Conseil d’Etat and Professor at the Institut d études politiques in Paris. This commentary is published by Daily News Egypt in collaboration with Project Syndicate, (www.project-syndicate.org).
