CAIRO: A week after their historic summit President Hosni Mubarak returned to Egypt and US President Barack Obama is vacationing on a small island in New England. The world is left to wonder what the effect of their meeting will have on the Middle East peace process.
Nabil Abdel Fattah, of Al-Ahram Center for Strategic and Political Studies, described the Mubarak-Obama meeting as part of a wider “atmosphere of change.
Ambassador Mahmoud Shoukry, a political analyst and writer, echoed the same idea. Obama is really trying to do something [with the peace process] and the atmosphere has changed, but the most important thing is that you have to move, you have to keep the momentum going.
At the same time both analysts were cautious about the near future. Shoukry said, If Israel takes a positive step than we are going to reciprocate and we are not going to take the initiative before it starts.
Abdel-Fattah explained that both the Israelis and the Palestinians are waiting for Obama to take the initiative.
Egypt is a key partner and mediator in the peace process. Obama’s choice of Cairo as the place from which to address the Muslim world indicated that the new administration is now realizing the importance of such role.
Shoukry stressed that the meeting allowed Obama to listen and understand Egypt’s position. “[That] Obama needed to know the view of Egypt is a very important element in this equation. Mubarak has ruled Egypt for 28 years and for them to reach a solution [to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict] there must be a clarity of viewpoints. The ambassador also emphasized that “Egypt is a bridge to Israel.
Abdel-Fattah credits Obama’s unique character for the change he brought to the table and cites the meeting with President Mubarak among other initiatives that have revived the peace process.
He casts Obama as a “historical figure and believes the Mubarak meeting is keeping with Obama’s emphasis on dialogue as a foreign policy tool. “His speeches in Cairo and Turkey also presented this idea of dialogue with the Islamic world.
At the same time he cautioned that such high expectations for Obama could be dangerous as well. “If Obama doesn t live up to the hype, any disappointment is dangerous . it could bring new waves of violence to the region.
Abdel Fattah’s comments echo the opinion of King Abdullah II of Jordan who believes there is only an 18-month window to restarting the peace process before a new cycle of violence strikes the region.
Shoukry points to other changes in the American foreign policy. “Afghanistan and Iraq were a turning point in American policy, he said, explaining that the American learnt the hard way they can’t get out. “They want to avoid entanglements like this in the future.
Secondly, the ambassador also believes the financial crisis has informed the policy of the United States as he believes now that American policy makers are questioning the cost benefit of maintaining global military hegemony as the world’s only superpower.
The Middle East is also ready for a transition. “[The Arab states] are ready for an exchange of interests, we are ready to start a new era. Are they [Israel] ready for that? Shoukry asked.
Shoukry spoke of the need for Israel to stop West Bank settlements; one of the issues Obama has also worked on with some success since taking office and it was one of the key topics of conversation during his meeting with Mubarak.
The ambassador also conceded that if Israel does succeed in halting settlements then the Arab countries could offer a “bonus gesture. This could include the establishment of symbolic Israeli cultural or commercial interest sections within Arab countries. This would serve as part of the path toward normalization.
The Obama administration has been pressing for this concession. In the past Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and Morocco have all maintained Israeli facilities of this kind at one time or another.
Both Shoukry and Abdel-Fattah conceded that the path from the Mubarak-Obama summit to peace remains difficult despite the rising initiative for peace. “We have to use all trump cards, Shoukry added.
