CAIRO: The summer of 2009 saw a “boom in Egyptian and foreign speculation as to the regime’s plans for Gamal’s [Mubarak] succession, a US report said.
In his report, Michael Wahid Hanna, a fellow and program officer at the Century Foundation, thoroughly discussed the possibility of the inheritance of power in Egypt.
The report, titled “The Son Also Rises: Egypt s Looming Succession Struggle was published by the World Policy Institute.
Hanna explained that recent speculations were fueled by several factors such as news about the president’s health and his “seclusion from the public. Hanna said foreign press were also “gripped by this fever, with American, European, Arab and Israeli media discussing Mubarak’s possible successors and a possibility of stepping down.
However, it is necessary that during the transition to Mubarak’s successor that Egypt takes steps “towards the establishment of a political culture that can tolerate and support the emergence of independent domestic initiatives aimed at creating governmental accountability, the report said.
Hanna said Egypt has a legal electoral superstructure that would facilitate Gamal’s succession.
This includes the 2005 constitutional amendments which, although allowed a multiparty election for the first time, have placed “severe restrictions on the candidates. Such restrictions include stipulating the endorsement of 250 elected officials for the candidates, making it only possible for a member of the ruling National Democratic Party to run.
Hanna indicated that Mubarak’s successful attempt in distancing the military from the political arena – that now it has “no visible role in the business of governing – can also be a way of paving the road for Gamal’s succession.
This is clear in the current cabinet of ministers which includes only one active duty military officer – the Minister of Defense Mohamed Hussein Tantawi – although, Hanna says, Omar Suleiman, a senior military officer and the current head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Servicers, is a minister without a portfolio.
Hanna also discussed the continuous elimination of any potential successor to Mubarak. He cited the removal of popular and charismatic Minister of Defense Abdel Halim Abu Ghazala, in 1989 was a move to squash a potential rival.
He also cited Mubarak’s endorsement in 2001 for popular minister of Foreign Affairs Amr Moussa to be the secretary general of the Arab League. In his report, Hanna warned that should Gamal take over in 2011, there are a number of simple procedures he has to take to quell any possible public backlash or discontent following his electoral victory.
According to Hanna, the reinstatement of term limits could foster a level of stability by creating a political horizon for frustrated opposition members and the society at large.
Hanna also said that there is “growing speculation that Gamal Suleiman is a potential successor. He explained that this is a “testament to the limited universe of plausible candidates and the hope among diverse sectors of the Egyptian populace that the country would avoid the humiliation of being reduced to a quasi monarchy.
Hanna concluded by saying, “While succession itself will not immediately set off chaos, perhaps the ignominious prospect of another 28 years of economic dysfunction and political repression could be what finally upends Egypt’s seemingly perpetual but untenable status quo.
