The Dubai operation looks like a brilliant bungle. Brilliant because it was swift, smooth and effective. Hamas commander Mahmoud Mabhouh is dead and, according to Jane s Defence Weekly, which quotes an unnamed senior Hamas man, the perpetrators took a cell-phone and a set of documents that reveal arms sources and arms deals and so seriously damage future procurement.
Add to this that Mabhouh was responsible for the abduction and murder of two Israeli soldiers more than 20 years ago. That s good for deterrence, the action proving that Israel never forgets and forgives. Not bad for a day s work that demonstrates superb logistics and precise coordination.
But weigh this against the blunder. The conspiracy-minded might argue that the mess was part of a well-laid plan. Accordingly, the false beards and mustaches, the oversized sunglasses, the untrammeled cell-phone traffic, and the what-do-I-care antics in front of the security cameras all add up to a performance neither typical nor worthy of Israeli intelligence. Hence this vaudeville act was staged to look like a mukhabarat mise-en-scene, and we know how incompetent Arab security services are, don t we? Blame it on Fateh, Hamas deadly rival, or on the Egyptians or Saudis who have lots of accounts to square with Hamastan, Iran s ally and client.
Alas, it ain t so. The evidence thickens that it was an Israeli op. There are just too many passports (formerly) belonging to Brits and Irish living in Israel. The latest batch, 15 more, includes suspects from France and Australia, according to Dubai. And then there is this Michael Bodenheimer, an Israeli who showed up in Cologne to claim German heritage and a German passport last summer. He has since disappeared spurlos , which is German for without a trace .
Let s assume the Mossad did it. Why on earth did these super-smart folks think the passport ploy would go unnoticed in today s post-9/11 world where every travel document is scrutinized, digitally filed and compiled? Above all in Dubai, which is so super-vigilant precisely because it is an airport state , that is, a hub of global in-and-out movement?
So a Hamas kingpin of highest strategic value was killed; that s one up for Israel, no matter who done it. But the fall-out is not exactly on the small side. France s President Nicolas Sarkozy is blaming Israel; so is Britain, so is Ireland, so is the entire European Union. On the last occasion, Israel swore holy oaths never to use foreign identities again. If Israel did it, the passport gambit would be an in-your-face provocation that would not endear the country in Europe. For all its hostilities, Europe is still Israel s most important asset next to the United States.
How do you weigh a tactical triumph against a strategic blunder, politically defined? Dubai is no warm friend of Israel, but friendly enough by, say, Syrian and Iranian standards. Was it worth it to kick the UAE in the teeth?
The argument in response is: Strengthening deterrence in the Hobbesian world of the Middle East is always a good thing. And reliable deterrence always requires a heavy dose of apparent irrationality and real ruthlessness. This is true. But why would Israel want to look like yet another rogue state that defies those minimal standards by which the western world lives? The West is where Israel s home is.
Reputation is a double-edged combat-knife. One side signals: Don t mess with me; I will hit you twice as hard where it hurts. The other says: I am part of the West; I will live by a code of conduct that marks me as a member of that community. And if I defy it, as a country that does not share the happy fate of Sweden sometimes must, I will be circumspect and discreet. This operation was neither.
But that s not all. Israel is a vibrant, cacophonous democracy. Hence a chorus of Israeli voices condemns the Dubai killing as vigorously as any European critic. Here is the worst-case scenario: The Knesset forms a commission, a drawn-out investigation begins, charges and counter-charges are batted back and forth, Mossad practices undergo painful public scrutiny, and finally, heads roll.
The blow-back, if it materializes, will not strengthen deterrence vis-a-vis Arabs and Iran. Instead it will increase self-deterrence and so weaken Israel s will to act next time round. What if the next challenge is a matter of true necessity rather than choice, as the Mabhouh case seems to have been?
Josef Joffeis publisher/editor of the German weekly Die Zeit and a senior fellow at Stanford s Institute for International Studies as well as Abramowitz Fellow of the University s Hoover Institution. This commentary is published by DAILY NEWS EGYPT in collaboration with bitterlemons-international.org.
