By Marwa Ibrahim
CAIRO: Egypt ranked 49 out of 177 states on the 2010 Failed States Index report released this week, an improvement from last year’s ranking at 43.
The report was released by the Fund for Peace, an independent, educational research organization headquartered in Washington, DC.
Egypt was preceded closely by Syria at number 48, and followed by Bhutan, a South Asian state bordered by India and China.
The report utilized a method of calculating indices to categorize and list countries from highest at risk of failure to lowest at risk of failure.
The released list classified countries number 1 to 37 in the ‘alert’ zone; number 38 to 129 in the ‘warning’ zone; 130 to 164 in the ‘moderate’ zone and lastly, 165 to 177 in the ‘sustainable’ zone.
Egypt was positioned in the second category. The organization’s website stated, “It is important to note that these ratings do not necessarily forecast when states may experience violence or collapse. Rather, they measure vulnerability to collapse or conflict.”
Meanwhile, with an index of 111.8, Sudan took number three on the list of states at risk of failure, while Iraq followed at number seven. Other countries listed in the ‘alert’ zone included Afghanistan, Haiti, Yemen, Iran and Lebanon.
“The improvement in Egypt’s ranking could simply be a result of changes in the ranks of other countries,” said Dina Shehata, senior researcher at the Al-Ahram Institute for Political and Strategic Studies.
“However, Egypt is not considered a failed state. There are in Egypt challenges to the authority of the state, but the situation is not anarchic as it is in Somalia,” she added.
Shehata explained that the ongoing problem between judges and lawyers demeans the state’s stature. “A concern that has to be addressed is the weakening respect for the law. A real challenge for Egypt is to ensure that laws are being implemented.”
When asked about the relevance of the case of late Khaled Saeid, allegedly murdered by police officers in Alexandria, Shehata said that this was only an example of the systematic torture that occurs in Egypt. “What’s new is that such a case has become a public opinion issue, which is a positive development,” she added.
Kamal El Menoufy, political science professor at Cairo University, agreed that respect for the law in Egypt has declined. He added that other signs of failure included lack of proper distribution of wealth, high rates of unemployment, the youth’s negative outlook on their future, and the ruling party’s abuse of power.
“The report will probably be read and discussed by intellectuals,” added El Menoufy, “But I doubt anyone from the government will pay attention to it.”
As stated on their website, the organization’s intentions were clear. “We encourage others to utilize the Failed States Index to develop ideas for promoting greater stability worldwide. We hope the Index will spur conversations, encourage debate, and most of all help guide strategies for sustainable security.”
The Fund for Peace bases the annual report on thousands of articles, reports and other online data, adding that it is not limited to countries for which statistics are available. The organization uses its own Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) — “an original methodology it has developed and tested over the last decade,” as stated on its website.
The report excluded what it described as territories whose political status and UN membership was not final, which include Palestine, Taiwan and Kosovo.
The CAST methodology used 12 “Indicators of State Vulnerability,” grouped into three main categories; social, economic and political indicators. These included “uneven economic development along group lines,” “progressive deterioration of public services,” and “mounting demographic pressures,” to name a few.
Among the highest (worst) indicators in Egypt’s index — at 87.6 — were “arbitrary application of the rule of law” and “rise of factionalized elites.”
Somalia, the first on the list, received an index of 114.3 while Norway, the last on the list boasted an index of 18.7. The wide range of indices attributed to the measured states, along with a detailed breakdown of their scores, is listed on the organization’s website.
Foreign Policy magazine published an article listing the top 60 states saying, “Shattered Somalia has been the No. 1 failed state for three years running, and none of the current top 10 have shown much improvement, if any, since Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace began publishing the index in 2005. State failure, it seems, is a chronic condition.”
However, some states, albeit a small number, have made notable progress and improved their conditions over the years, namely South Africa, India, and the Dominican Republic, becoming less at a risk of failure.
At number 144, Oman is best ranked out of other Arab states included in the report, followed closely by Qatar at number 139. Other countries like Canada is at number 166, the United Kingdom is at number 161, and the United States at number 158.
According to the Fund, “The 12 indicators cover a wide range of state failure risk elements such as extensive corruption and criminal behavior, inability to collect taxes or otherwise draw on citizen support, large-scale involuntary dislocation of the population, sharp economic decline, group-based inequality, institutionalized persecution or discrimination, severe demographic pressures, brain drain, and environmental decay.”
Although there has been a decrease in interstate wars, the organization argues that internal conflicts are on the rise, cultivating threats to world peace and endangering two billion people that live in countries with a significant risk of collapse.
“These insecure and unstable states are breeding grounds for terrorism, organized crime, weapons proliferation, humanitarian emergencies, environmental degradation, and political extremism — threats that will affect everyone,” states the organization on its website.
