KHARTOUM: Sudan is "alarmingly" unprepared for a January referendum on southern independence and international intervention is urgently needed to prevent a return to civil war, a coalition of NGOs warned Wednesday.
"The clock is ticking fast towards what might be the most important date in modern Sudanese history," the global coalition said in a report, referring to the January 9 referendum to decide on independence for south Sudan.
The vote also will decide on whether the oil-rich frontier region of Abyei will choose to fasten itself to the Muslim north or the Christian and animist south.
"Alarmingly, the current level of preparation is poor," the report warned.
The report by 24 international humanitarian and human rights organizations noted that the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) had ended more than two decades of civil war between north and south Sudan which left two million people dead.
It underscored that the referendum is a central provision of the peace agreement, deciding either on a united Sudan or full independence for the south, which has vast and largely untapped natural resources, including oil.
"The CPA has held north and south Sudan together and ended one of the deadliest conflicts of the 20th century," said Osman Hummaida, head of the African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies, a member of the global coalition.
"A failed referendum could plunge Sudan back into war once more. The international community must now capitalize on the opportunity provided by the CPA and ensure that a free and fair referendum occurs," he said.
"A range of states and multilateral organizations, called Guarantors, pledged to help Sudan implement the CPA," the report noted, warning that they "have only six months to fulfill that promise."
Guarantors of the CPA include the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the African Union, European Union, Arab League, United Nations, Britain, the United States and several other countries.
"The referenda in southern Sudan and Abyei are arguably the most momentous events to happen in Sudan since its independence in 1956," said the report, titled "Renewing the Pledge: Re-Engaging the Guarantors to the Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement."
"An agreement to share the revenues from oil was instrumental in achieving peace between north and south Sudan," noted Rosie Sharpe from Global Witness, another member of the coalition.
"As preparations begin for the referendum and possible southern independence, it will be vital to resolve outstanding issues around oil in order to avert a return to war," she said.
A commission to organize the referendum was set up last month, and a voters’ list must be ready three months before the vote, that is, by October.
Southern Sudanese and those living abroad must be registered by then.
But questions abound: Who is south Sudanese and how to prove it?
The same question also remains for the natives of Abyei, the oil-rich region at the border of north and south. A commission still has not been named to organize the plebiscite for Abyei.
"Unless international efforts are immediately redoubled, the peace process could be derailed at this juncture and tensions could rise. In the worst case scenario, the parties could return to war," the report warned.
"The Guarantors have allowed the two parties to come precariously close to a point at which the 9 January 2011 date for the holding of two free and fair referenda becomes practically impossible yet is politically difficult to move," it added.
The report said that neither the National Congress Party of President Omar Al-Beshir in the north nor the ex-rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in the south "seems to want war," but that "both have been preparing for its possibility."
"The time to pull back is limited and Sudan could descend into conflict again," the report warned.
It recommended that Sudan’s multiple conflicts be addressed "holistically" by the international community, without the focus being only on southern Sudan.
