CAIRO: Since his return to Egypt, Saad Eddin Ibrahim, founder of the Ibn Khaldoun Center for Development Studies, has been under a special kind of siege. His wife Barbara is reluctant to let him talk to the media, concerned that his statements might lead to another run-in with the government.
From the moment he arrived at Cairo International Airport last Wednesday from his self-imposed exile in the US, Barbara Ibrahim made sure everything went smoothly, turning down several journalists’ requests to interview him, stressing that this is a family visit.
Ahmed Rizk, Ibrahim’s brother and head of Ibn Khaldoun Center, told journalists awaiting Ibrahim at the release of the center’s annual democracy report that he will not be able to attend due to the siege imposed on him by his wife.
In an exclusive interview with Daily News Egypt, Ibrahim warned that the inheritance of power will lead to a revolution in Egypt, citing current class-based strikes that usually precede revolutions.
Ibrahim said that it is not true that Egyptians never revolt, stressing that they do it in their own way. He explained that the people of Egypt do not revolt for what intellectuals call for, but for their own demands.
Ibrahim said he is yet to meet a supporter for Gamal Mubarak.
Daily News Egypt: Some say that a deal was reached for your return, what do you have to say about this?
There is no deal. I asked Barbara and she told me she did not contact anybody or arrange anything. It seems that the government wanted things to go smoothly and I thank them for this. All I care about is returning home like any other citizen. Even if I opted for any public activities, they would be peaceful and legal. I am supposed to be welcome, and so far I am. I hope this [attitude] persists.
Many believe that the plan for the inheritance of power is underway, will Egyptians accept that?
What I witnessed after I toured four governorates – Cairo, Giza, Daqahleya and Alexandria – and after I met many intellectuals proved to me that Egyptians would never accept this. I have never met one person supporting Gamal Mubarak.
During my visit to Daqahleya, I saw posters plastered on busses that read, “Mubarak is the present and Gamal is the future,” with a photo of Gamal smiling. On my way back I saw those posters with a red ‘X’ across them. People now are searching for alternatives, and ElBaradei represents the best alternative.
Many say that Egyptians never revolted against a local ruler.
Egyptians have their own way when it comes to revolutions. If we compared Egyptians to the French for example, we would find that since the French revolution in the 18th century, France only witnessed four revolutions. Egypt witnessed around six revolutions throughout the same period starting with the first and second revolutions of Cairo during the French occupation, the Orabi Revolution, the 1919 Revolution, the 1952 Revolution, and finally Jan. 17 and 18 strikes in 1978.
It is not true that Egyptians never rise; they do this in their own way. Egyptians are the ones who created their own leadership, and intellectuals never made them rise.
But those revolutions were against a foreign ruler, not a local one.
The Cairo Fire on Jan. 26, 1952 and the Jan. 17 and 18 strike in 1978 were against local rulers, but they were disorganized and barbarian.
What do you think about the gap between the elite’s political demands, and the public’s class-based demands?
Class-based demands always precede major revolutions. For example, in 1968 in France, students revolted against demands related to international peace, and they started to oppose Charles de Gaulle later on. Also, the French Revolution started as a bread strike and then took a political turn. The same applies to the American Revolution. In today’s newspapers (August 9) there are six strikes, and those could be precursors.
Do you consider July 23, 1952 a revolution?
Yes, it was a revolution because it led to regime change, and also changed the dominant social and economic structure. The first spark started in 1952 and continued until 1960. In this period, many policies and decision-making led to fundamental changes within the Egyptian society like agricultural reform laws, free education and nationalization.
But many consider it a coup d’etat.
Yes, this is how it started, every revolution starts with a coup d’etat, but not every coup d’etat involves a revolution, because a revolution means bringing fundamental change.
Talks about inheritance of power coincide with price hikes and inflation; does this fuel instability?
There is an article published in Al-Doustor newspaper about a crowd of thousands of people crammed inside a stadium to get a box full of food supplies for Ramadan. Imagine in this situation that a person snuck into this crowd and convinced them that it is not about the box, but what’s beyond the box and incited them to burn the governor’s office. This crowd could turn from a spontaneous crowd to an active crowd.
Since scenes of crowds are common on the Egyptian streets, the idea of a revolution is likely. We have seen during the past years Bedouin upheavals for the first time, in addition to other sectors calling for special demands, so the possibility of a violent revolution is likely. Change does not necessarily have to come peacefully.
Is that the reason behind your stay in the US?
Absolutely not. On the contrary, they are the reasons why I came back. As a sociologist I want to witness the society as it changes. People are getting ready for a post-Mubarak stage.
Some say that many sectors are bullying the state as a result of its weakness, the example could be the priest’s wife who escaped and was returned by the Church. Do you think that Copts are bullying the state?
Copts are like many sectors in the society who would have never gone on strike if they had other effective political means, which pushes them to call for their demands in that manner. What applies to Copts should apply also to Bedouins, fishermen, and farmers. Copts did not hold any protests during the period of 1905 until 1971, only when conditions started deteriorating that they started being active.
Is there a revolution on the horizon in Egypt?
All revolutions are preceded with individual social protests, increasing in numbers and participants. There is a revolution on the horizon, whether it is violent or not depends on the regime, if the government resorted to violence, the people will retaliate.
Political powers are calling for measures to guarantee the integrity of the elections, how should they respond if their demands are not met by the government?
In my opinion, they have to boycott [the elections], or practice a form of civil disobedience to lobby the government. I wrote before asking ElBaradei if he has a plan B, so that if his demands are not met he is ready to lead a campaign of civil disobedience, and I reiterate my calls.
How do explain those who join the game before its rules are changed?
Joining the game with already known results and accepting them actually legitimizes this game. I call for well-defined and clear rules for the game with real and fair political competition. This competition requires some modifications in laws, regulations and practices. The required changes are known and ElBaradei called for them in his seven demands for change, which I totally support. I think if the regime listened to those demands and acknowledged them; it would benefit the National Democratic Party, Egypt, and democracy as a whole.
In my opinion, the possibility of the NDP winning in a fair and free election is likely, but with 55 or 60 percent of the votes, which is better than 80 percent of illegitimate votes.
