CAIRO: When Al-Wafd’s Port Said MP Mohamed Sherdy sought information from the Ministry of Manpower and Immigration regarding the labor force and the employment training programs currently taking place in Port Said, he was told that no such information exists.
Sherdy, who requested this information in order to plan training programs for Port Said’s unemployed youth, went through the entire bureaucratic process before finally being informed that the information he desired is non-existent.
“We don’t know how many unemployed people we have in Egypt,” said Sherdy. “Every ministry has its own figures and no one has a plan [even though] 90 percent of our graduates are suffering from unemployment.”
The ministry has countered Sherdy’s claim, stating that it has an information program that provides comprehensive data about the Egyptian labor force and Egypt’s work opportunities — broken down by geographic area — that is available to the public.
“We use this data to [implement] our training policy, and we send weekly periodicals to all [applicable] organizations [that contain] the available work opportunities and labor information, as well as … job announcements for investors seeking labor,” Minister of Manpower and Immigration Aisha Abdel-Hadi told Daily News Egypt.
Abdel-Hadi said that the employment bulletin that used to be issued and distributed monthly to the ministry’s offices and various organizations throughout Egypt is now provided on a weekly basis due to the continuous changes taking place within the labor market.
But the problem, according to Al Ahram Center for Strategic and Political Studies economic expert Ahmed Al-Naggar, is that unemployment figures tend to be quite deceptive and often provide contradictory information.
Al-Naggar stated that the Central Bank’s latest report affirmed that the Egyptian labor force was composed of 22.5 million people in 2008. However, upon closer analysis of the report’s figures, the labor distribution across different sectors — 1 million workers in the non-governmental public sector, 5.3 million in the governmental sector, and 16 million in the private sector — did not account for 200,000 people that the report explicitly stated were in the 2008 labor force.
Al-Naggar provided further evidence of these statistical contradictions. The latest official statistics issued by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics stated that the unemployment rate in Egypt was 8.9 percent during the second quarter of 2010. Yet according to the 2010 World Development Indicators, the Egyptian labor force is estimated to be 26.3 million people. When the total number of employed Egyptians (22.3 million) is used to calculate the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate, as reported by the 2010 World Development Indicators, becomes 15.2 percent.
“Not to mention that these statistics consider seasonal … day-to-day workers [as] employed, [even though] they may only work for a [portion of the year],” said Al-Naggar.
Mohamed Morsy, the head of the statistics department at CAPMAS, stated that the CAPMAS is the only entity in Egypt that has been endorsed to issue the country’s unemployment statistics. According to Morsy, the unemployment rate in Egypt has fluctuated between 8.5 and 10 percent over the past few years.
“Unemployment rates are calculated based on unemployed [people] who are a part of the labor force — not the whole population — [in accordance with] the regulations of the International Labor Organization (ILO),” Morsy told Daily News Egypt.
“We survey 84,000 families annually — distributed equally across the country — [over] four periods a piece, with 21,000 families using a unified survey … accredited by the ILO,” he added.
Who’s unemployed?
Experts attributed all of the conflicting statistical figures in circulation to the absence of a clear definition of those who are unemployed. Some organizations, like CAPMAS, defined an employed person to be anyone who stated that they worked for at least one hour during the week preceding when they completed the employment survey. Others organizations’ definitions of what constitutes an employed person differ greatly by time period and total working hours, ranging from one week to three months.
“Most available statistics don’t provide the definitions and procedures used in carrying out the study, which leads to contradiction and [differing] figures for unemployment,” said Hussein Abdel-Aziz, a cabinet consultant for the Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC).
Moreover, the ILO defines an unemployed person as someone who has no job despite having actively looked for work during the past four weeks.
But experts like Heba El-Leithy, a professor of statistics at the Faculty of Economy and Political Science at Cairo University, state that more specific questions could help better establish a reliable, accurate unemployment rate.
“To put [forth] the right policies, we need to know the difference between unemployment among the youth and among society as a whole, [as well as] the role of age, gender and education as variables involved in … unemployment,” El-Leithy said.
“The figure of unemployment, in itself, is insufficient,” El-Leithy added. “Are those [who are] unemployed searching for jobs now? And where? If they were offered a job now, will they accept [it] or not? ”
“Different statistics may not have an effect [on their own],” said Abdel-Aziz. “What matters is the usage of the detailed data [that accompanies the unemployment] figure [which outlines the] distribution of unemployment and its characteristics. These data are available, but the question is whether [or not] they are [utilized].”
Statistical Gap
The “Information Gap in Egyptian Statistics and the Quality of Data” — a study conducted by the IDSC which surveyed 51 experts and officials — identified a problem in the availability of data and the lack of mechanisms that ensure the data’s accuracy. The study largely attributed this problem to the absence of freedom of information laws, as well as to the lack of an authentication protocol among the organizations responsible for collecting data.
The study also ascribed poor statistical data to the overall lack of awareness regarding the importance of receiving accurate data. According to the study, if both the data collectors and those being surveyed fully understood that the results of the survey would be used to solve Egypt’s unemployment problems, more careful consideration would be given to the survey’s responses. This, in turn, could significantly lessen the amount of contradictory data that these surveys frequently produce.
According to Abdel-Hadi, the ministry possesses detailed information about the Egyptian labor market, including available jobs, lost jobs, and the gap between workers’ qualifications and the market’s needs.
“These data are sent to educational entities to adjust their programs according to the market’s needs,” said Abdel-Hadi.
“The problem with the data of the Ministry of Manpower [and Immigration] is that they depend on the ministry’s offices and on people taking the initiative to report that they are unemployed, which doesn’t produce accurate data,” said El-Leithy.
“People won’t [report to the government that they are unemployed] unless they are sure that there will be some benefits for them in return … but there aren’t [any benefits for them], so they don’t report to the ministry, and thus the numbers are not accurate.”
El-Leithy added that the ministry should conduct its own specialized surveys rather than relying upon people to report their unemployment status on their own.
Despite El-Leithy’s criticisms, she stated that she believes Egypt’s unemployment problems will improve as the government gradually utilizes the data available in a more effectual manner.
“Sometimes the problem is the unemployed [people] themselves,” said Abdel-Hadi.
Abdel-Hadi cited the textile industry as an example of how the government is not the sole party responsible for the country’s unemployment problems.
According to the ministry’s data, the textile sector could potentially provide 200,000 jobs with promising career prospects; however, many Egyptians are reluctant to work in the textile industry, preferring either private sector jobs or governmental positions.
“What we need is a change in the culture of people and the type of jobs they want,” Abdel-Hadi said.
