CAIRO: Africa’s largest nation, Sudan, is set to decide on its fate after years of civil war as it votes in a weeklong independence referendum that started Jan. 9, one that will not only affect the future of Sudan but will also create ripples through the continent in general and Egypt in specific.
Political analysts predict that Southern Sudanese voters will opt for separation; a decision that Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi believes will set an example or become a “contagious disease” for other rebelling groups in countries to follow.
But for analysts, Egypt has bigger fish to fry, explaining that the geographical structure of Egypt does not allow for a separation for minorities who suffer sectarian strife.
The referendum will include a set of destabilizing factors that will threaten Egypt’s national security and economy, analysts said, as it becomes an opportunity for interested powers to use South Sudan against Egypt by controlling water flow through Sudan and into Egypt.
A divided Sudan is not in Egypt’s best interest, according to recent statements by the Egyptian foreign ministry spokesman. Wikileaks cables also suggested that Egyptian officials were lobbying in 2008 for a four to six year delay in Sudan’s secession referendum to give the South more time to become viable as a potential state.
Egyptian diplomats believe is that the referendum will result in a “non-viable state” that could threaten Egypt’s access to the Nile water, an October 2009 cable quoted officials saying.
Egypt fears a “fatal implication,” including causing an influx of migrants to Egypt, hurting Suez Canal revenues and affecting Egypt’s Nile water share, according to Wikileaks cables.
According to experts, the independence of the South will have a negative impact on Egypt as it will disturb the strategic balance between both countries.
Sharing the Nile
The emergence of a new Nile Basin country will empower the African nations as Southern Sudan would be more likely to side with the upstream countries of the Nile Basin like Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia due to their ethnicity and culture, Hany Raslan, head of Sudan and Nile Basin Studies Program at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Unit, explained.
These countries believe that the colonial era treaty which guaranteed Egypt’s right to receive most of the Nile water is unfair for the year 2011.
A new agreement, the Nile Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA,) was opened for signature in May 2010 for a period of one year until May 13, 2011.
Egypt and Sudan refused to sign the CFA, however with the division of Sudan and the emergence of a new African state, African nations will unify and strengthen their stance towards the redistribution of the Nile which Egypt and Sudan have always rejected.
“Israel continued to fuel the Sudanese civil war so that Sudan reaches what it has become now,” said Raslan.
“If Sudan, which is an Arab and Muslim country, was given the chance to develop, it could have bolstered Egypt and the Arab world,” he added.
The main idea, experts argued, behind the Israeli strategy in Sudan is to influence the flow of the Nile to Egypt, which puts Israel in a position to pressure Egypt to share the Nile. Israel made that proposal twice over the years, during the British Occupation as well as during the Sadat era, but was turned down.
“This secession will lead to change that will affect the water and the security of the Red Sea that will challenge the Suez Canal as well,” Raslan explained.
An influx of refugees
Contingency plans drawn up by the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNCHR) suggest that up to 50,000 refugees will be dispatched to Egypt if some unrest — not an all-out war — breaks out in Sudan after the referendum. Violence might break out after Southern independence due to disputes over oil regions and other issues including tribal disagreements.
“We place high hopes on the outcome of several initiatives, including the recent visit to Khartoum of Presidents Mubarak and Qaddafi, which have aimed at smoothening the post-referendum process and avoiding human displacements,” said Mohamed Dayri, the UNCHR regional representative.
Yet, it is unclear if Egypt, which hosts about 18,000 registered Sudanese refugees, could be a home for others considering the current Egyptian political and social challenges.
“Some forms of displacement may nevertheless happen within Southern Sudan, from Southern Sudan into the neighboring countries of asylum, and maybe from Khartoum to Southern Sudan and to neighboring countries like Eritrea or Egypt,” Dayri said.
“However, our protection teams would be ready to assist those who may be traumatized, if a civil strife were to erupt in Sudan,” he added.
Ever since its independence in 1955, Sudan was rocked by a 17-year civil war that ended with a treaty that granted autonomy to the South in 1972.
But another civil war erupted in 1983 when rebels rose up against Khartoum’s strategy, demanding a secular and democratic Sudan that led to the death of 2 million people and the relocation of 4 million.
The war, Africa’s longest, ended on January 9, 2005, when John Garang, the leader of the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army signed a peace accord with Khartoum which exempted the South from sharia (Islamic law) and was given six years to work on a united government ahead of an independence referendum in 2011.
Historically, according to experts, Egypt played an important role in seeking unity between the North and South. During the civil war, Egypt was keen not to supply either side with arms. The country invests heavily in the South, nevertheless, maintaining its relationship with the North. However, Egypt failed to convince Sudan to stay united.
“Unity could not be forced by power,” Sudanese President Omar Al-Beshir said in recent statements. He had also vowed to rule the North under the Islamic sharia and announce Arabic as its official language in case of separation.
