By Ahmed Kadry
For the first time during this entire revolutionary saga where millions of Egyptians at home and on the streets have rallied to have the president removed from office, protestors remained silent as President Hosni Mubarak made his second public address on the eve of February 1st.
Two million protestors rallied passionately but peacefully throughout February 1st, achieving their goal of a million man march in the heart of the city, Tahrir Square. But they all gave him his five minutes as he reemphasized the political and economic reforms he wants to implement before he leaves in September and he even tugged on their heart strings by reminding them of his military record and his 30 years of service to his country.
On February 2nd, Egypt woke up to a strange calmness. His speech was very clever and it went much further than his earlier speech on Friday the 28th January. He stated that he would step down in September but he took away any sign of victory for the protestors by adding that he never planned to run for a sixth term in the first place. He also added that it was only he that could provide stability and peace whilst a political transition took place.
Protestors continued to call for his resignation once his speech came to a close but their numbers began to dwindle away from the now famous Tahrir Square as they were left disappointed and disillusioned by the President’s refusal to step down.
It left many believing that the stalemate would be over and that the millions of protestors would take the second speech of Hosni Mubarak as a moral victory. After all, the President had announced that he would be leaving within the year and the fear of his son taking power had now been defused.
Many Egyptians at home have been living in fear during this ordeal, all wishing that life would resume some sort of normality whilst at the same time supporting the cause behind the protests in Tahrir and around the country. They saw Mubarak’s speech as a victory for the protestors and assumed that they would go home and that political reform would begin to take shape in only a few months time.
That all changed on February 2nd when the protestors were attacked in Tahrir by pro-regime supporters who used a variety of violence as they stormed the square, causing panic and fear in the hearts of those who had managed to remain calm and peaceful for eight continuous days. Reports later showed that many of the pro-Mubarak supporters were in fact civilian clothed police officers, presumably acting under the direct orders of members of the NDP.
The army has been ever present during this saga and they did their best to control the outbreak of violence, but consistent with their role of passivity during these testing times in Egypt, they remained neutral and somewhat timid amidst the fighting.
Mubarak’s speech on February 1st should have signaled the beginning of the end of the protests and it was clear that many Egyptians were satisfied by the outcome. Instead, the acts of violence on February 2nd by the government and government puppets on the payroll have led Egyptians to two different paths; those who are outraged by the audacity of the attack on peaceful demonstrators and realize that their President must be removed immediately. Then there are those who now live in a state of fear and are willing to accept eight more months of this regime for temporary security and stability.
There have been talks of a civil war breaking out in Egypt akin to the Iraqi model of Shiaa’s and Sunni’s. There is also the fear that the removal of Mubarak would lead to a power vacuum that could be filled by an extremist Islamic regime such as the Muslim Brotherhood who do in fact have a large support group in Egypt since their foundation in 1928. This remains the main fear of Western international powers that Egypt could follow Iran as a radical Islamic state in a geographical region that is already turbulent and unstable to say the least.
The main weakness of the protestors is that they lack a leader or a leadership political party or body. Many are suspicious of Mohamed ElBaradei, a former member of the United Nations and joint winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005. Many Egyptians believe that his sudden emergence is in fact him acting as a puppet of the United States to ensure that in the event Mubarak is removed from office, ElBaradei would be a welcomed replacement for the United States and to counteract the threat of an Islamist regime coming to power such as the Brotherhood.
Similarly to the political stance of Iran, if the Brotherhood were to occupy the Presidency, many would expect them to take a hard line stance towards Israel and disturb the peace that Mubarak maintained with Israel during his 30-year term in office with the United States acting as a mediator.
Whatever the outcome, Egypt prior to the January 25, 2011 is not the Egypt that stands today. Whilst Mubarak remains in office, for the first time during his presidency, democracy has been in effect and the violence of February 2 failed to curb the democratic voice of the people.
Short term problems are certainly going to arise because 30 years of dictatorial rule need to be broken down, brick by brick. The economy and stability of the nation will certainly suffer but that is arguably the price that needs to be paid for long term equality and prosperity for a nation that has lived in passive silence and oppression for far too long.
