DUBAI: Deserted by top generals and tribal chiefs, Yemen’s long-time President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a great survivor in a turbulent region, is now likely faced with his last battle, analysts said on Tuesday.
In the first of a series of body blows to Saleh’s authority, General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar, commander of Yemen’s northwest region which covers Sanaa, on Monday announced he had joined the "revolution."
Eastern region commander General Mohammed Ali Mohsen has also thrown his support behind protesters.
They have been joined by at least two other generals, Nasser Ali Shuaybi in Hadramawt province and Faisal Rajab in the southern province of Lahij, as well as dozens of other officers.
The day before, a grouping of religious and tribal leaders called on Saleh, who has been in power ever since 1978, to "respect the will of the people," and depart.
Saleh has "lost all legitimacy in the eyes of his people, and he is now fighting his last battle. It’s a struggle for survival," said Franck Mermier, a Yemen specialist at the CNRS research centre in France.
The killing of 52 people by regime loyalists in Sanaa on Friday has accelerated defections from Saleh’s camp and galvanized protesters, who have been calling for Saleh’s departure for months.
The bloodbath showed that Saleh was "desperate and does not hold many more cards," according to Mermier. "This repressive policy deepens the specter of civil war."
In addition to army officers, Saleh has also lost key tribal support that is a pillar of his ability to rule. Sadiq Al-Ahmar, head of the largest tribal federation in Yemen, also cast his lot with the opposition on Monday.
And a slew of ambassadors, ruling party MPs and other Yemeni officials have either resigned in protest or announced their support for the opposition.
Additionally, the opposition is, at least on the surface, unified for the first time — southern separatist and northern Shia rebels have joined the cause. The parliamentary opposition is also supporting the protesters.
Security forces commanded by members of Saleh’s family are "at the forefront of the crackdown" on protesters calling for the president’s departure, Mermier said.
Fares Al-Saqqaf, director of the Centre for Future Studies in Sanaa, said Yemen has two armies: the regular army under the defence ministry and the Republican Guards and other special units commanded by Saleh’s family.
"Change in Yemen is inevitable, but the question is at what price," said Saqqaf, adding that Yemen was "closer to the Egyptian scenario, but could also follow that of Libya."
Egypt’s long-time president was forced out on February 11 by mass protests, after which the military took power, promising democratic elections.
But Libya has descended into open war between rebels calling for the ouster of its leader, Moamer Kadhafi, and forces loyal to him, with international forces carrying out strikes to enforce a no-fly zone on Kadhafi’s military.
But the main question, according to Saqqaf, is who would lead Yemen after Saleh, who has been in power for over three decades, among other challenges, Cold War division, civil war and Al-Qaeda threats.
"The vice president does not have real power, and the mandate of parliament is nearing its end," Saqqaf said.
Abdul Aziz Al-Sager, director of the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre, said: "There is a real concern on the part of the Americans and the Saudis," who have so far backed Saleh.
Washington has criticised violence against protesters, but in contrast to its response to violence in Egypt and Libya, it has not until now called for the Yemeni leader to step down.
"There is still no alternative who could provide security and fight Al-Qaeda," Sager said.
