By Hamza Hendawi / AP
CAIRO: Egypt’s ruling generals and leaders of the protesters who toppled Hosni Mubarak have been busy dismantling the former regime. But not enough is being done to deal with issues that, if left unresolved, could pose a serious threat to the country’s future.
In the two months since Mubarak’s ouster, Muslim militants have been on the rise, a persistent security vacuum is unleashing a wave of crime and a badly hit economy is affecting people’s lives.
Since the ouster of Mubarak on Feb. 11, the generals have dissolved the infamous State Security Agency and ordered criminal investigations against Cabinet ministers and regime-linked businessmen. A high court dissolved Mubarak’s one-time party, the National Democratic Party, last week, and Mubarak and his two sons face accusations of corruption and murder linked to the shooting of hundreds of protesters.
But a host of problems stand in the way of a transition to democracy.
Several senior members of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest political group, caused a stir when they recently spoke about installing an Islamic state and the implementation of Islamic punishments, like hand amputations for repeated theft or flogging for drinking alcohol.
Shadi Al-Ghazaly Harb, one of the youth leaders who organized the uprising, said the hardline comments would hurt the group. “It is the Brotherhood’s loss, not anyone else’s,” he said.
The Brotherhood said the comments did not reflect the group’s thinking, but the country’s secularists and minority Christians are alarmed that the Brotherhood, with the help of other Islamist groups, might one day win a majority in legislative elections.
Another attempt at power by Muslim militants has been unfolding in southern Egypt.
Thousands of Muslim militants in the city of Qena have been taking to the streets daily since Friday to protest the appointment of a Christian governor. The protesters blocked rail traffic on vital lines, occupied local government offices, stopped employees from reporting for work and forced most schools to close. On Wednesday, they lifted their siege of the government building, but continued to block the rail lines.
The protesters, mostly from the radical Salafi movement, said they would appoint their own governor if the government did not back down and threatened to disrupt work in a water pumping station. Two Cabinet ministers visited Qena to try to defuse the crisis, but the protesters remained adamant.
The new governor’s predecessor was a Christian and a former police general. He was reviled for his incompetence, security background, and close ties to the Mubarak regime, enabling the Salafis to draw on local dissatisfaction in their ongoing campaign. The Salafis, who seek to emulate the lifestyle of Islam’s early days in the seventh century, have for the past year played a key role in fueling sectarian tensions, spearheading protests against the Orthodox Christian church. Security officials say they have played a role in the deadly clashes between Christians and Muslims in Cairo last month following the burning of a church in a village south of the city. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to share the information with the media.
The Salafis, just like the relatively moderate Brotherhood, are setting up political parties to contest September’s legislative elections, and the Brotherhood wants to launch a satellite TV channel and a daily newspaper.
“There are reasons for us to be worried,” columnist Gamal Fahmy said about the heavy presence of Islamic groups in post-Mubarak Egypt. “But they will be cut down to their actual size when we have a well-organized and stable democratic system.”
Fahmy and other analysts believe it would be counterproductive for the ruling generals to crack down on the Islamists, although they have already stated that they will not allow radical groups to dominate the mainly Muslim nation of more than 80 million people. A crackdown on the militants, they warn, could be a prelude to similar action by the military against other groups.
Already, they note, the generals are accused of torturing detainees and ignoring due process in military tribunals for Egyptians charged with crimes that range from violating the late-night curfew to thuggery and theft. The tribunals, rights activists say, have sentenced around 10,000 people by the end of last month. Defendants have no recourse to appeal.
Abdullah Sinawy of the Nasserite party believes that new regulations governing the creation of new parties are too tough, and that all lawmakers who served during Mubarak’s 29 years in power should be barred from running for public office for five years. He argues that parliamentary elections scheduled for September would produce a legislature dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood and remnants of the former regime, since new groups would not have had time to prepare.
The country’s new constitution will be drafted by a panel appointed by lawmakers.
“The real problem is that we don’t have faith that the next constitution will protect the civil state we hope for and the revolution?” said Sinawy of the Nasserite party.
In the meantime, violent crime has risen steeply in Cairo and other cities across the nation, according to the Interior Ministry. Armed robberies, murder and theft are leading the uptick in crime. In February this year, 85 murders were recorded in the Greater Cairo area, compared to about 50 for the same month the year before. There were 600 cases of theft at gunpoint compared to about 200 the same month last year.
After clashing with protesters and withdrawing from the streets in late January, the police are back, but not in sufficient numbers to control crime. Much of the crime is blamed on inmates who broke out of jails during the uprising.
The military, meanwhile, cannot do much to combat crime, largely because it does not have the experience, manpower or intelligence available to the 500,000-strong police force.
The crime wave, many Egyptians suspect, is the work of remnants of the Mubarak regime seeking to undermine the new order. Prime Minister Essam Sharaf says disgruntled businessmen were behind the rise in crime as well as the flurry of street protests that followed Mubarak’s ouster.
Egypt’s woes are made all the worse by a deepening economic crisis.
Finance Minister Samir Radwan said Monday that he had requested as much as $6.2 billion in soft loans from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to help overcome the economic challenges since Mubarak’s ouster.
Tourism, a major source of income, has been badly hit because of the political upheavals of the past few months and the precarious security. Exports have also been hit.
The stock market, a showcase for the country’s ambitious reforms of the past decade, has been on a losing streak, with criminal investigations, including one of a leading Mideast private equity firm, widening to cover many of the country’s business and industry leaders.
And the price of basic food items is soaring, sending more and more people out on the streets to demand pay rises and better employment terms.
Ahmed El-Naggar, chief economist at the Al-Ahram Center for political and Strategic Studies, says talk about Egypt’s economic crisis is exaggerated and that appeals for donations from ordinary Egyptians to help the economy is sending the wrong message.
“The country has massive resources. Economic recovery is very possible with honest management.” –Hendawi is the Associated Press’ chief of bureau in Egypt.
