By Rami Khouri
The upheavals throughout parts of the Arab world caused by millions of people demonstrating for their citizenship rights can only impact positively on the Palestinian-Israeli and wider Arab-Israel conflicts, though short-term tensions are likely to escalate before longer-term benefits materialize. A more democratic Arab world can only be a plus for all in the region, primarily the Arab people themselves but also their neighbors, including Israelis. This is because governments that are truly representative of their people, and are held accountable through credible political processes, are likely to pursue more reasonable, rational and law-based policies that respond to both the will of their citizens and the dictates of international law.
The majority of Arab people clearly are fed up with and wish to throw into the dustbin of history the modern Arab security state and autocratic political order that have driven most Arab countries into a state of socio-economic distress, intellectual poverty, managerial incompetence, and political mediocrity, while allowing the Arab-Israel conflict to fester as a chronic source of humiliation, radicalization and destabilization. While the current uprisings are purely about domestic political issues, the nature of governance and the rights of citizens, more legitimate and democratic Arab governments will inevitably adjust their shoddy foreign policies towards the challenge that Israel poses.
In the short run, as we already witness in Egypt, Arab democracies will reflect the widespread popular desire to support the Palestinians politically and economically, without returning to a state of active war with Israel. Democratic Arabs will be more politically sensible and diplomatically astute actors, who are more likely to be able to strike the heretofore elusive balance between coming to terms with Israel while preserving Arab dignity and rights, and also responding to domestic Arab needs for balanced and equitable national development. Arab public opinion has made it clear in the last decade or so that it is prepared to live in peace with a Jewish-majority Israeli state within its pre-1967 borders, on condition that Israel also accepts a sovereign Palestinian state and a fair, negotiated resolution to the end of Palestinian refugeehood.
Several consequences of the “Arab spring” are already visible in the Arab-Israel arena. In line with public demonstrations in many other Arab countries, popular pressure has been exerted on the Fatah and Hamas movements within Palestine to reconcile, which has started to happen. This has occurred in part because of another consequence of the Arab spring—the new government in Egypt and the distracted government in Syria. The Cairo government, reflecting popular opinion, has adopted a more balanced position in mediating the Fatah-Hamas split, and has also signaled plans to open the border with Gaza and move towards normalization of relations with Iran (after allowing Iranian vessels to pass through the Suez Canal a few months ago).
With a new foreign policy in Egypt and the Syrian government preoccupied with its own domestic uprising, Fatah and Hamas have both had to adjust to the reality that two of their important Arab supporters no longer persist in their previous policies. The speedy reconciliation agreement is partly due to this reality. The reunified Palestinian government is likely to clarify a common national position on making war or peace with Israel, which can only augur well for all concerned because it means the Palestinians once again field a credible player in the peace-making dynamic. The Palestinians have previously made it clear that they are all prepared to accept a West Bank-Gaza-East Jerusalem state and a just resolution of the refugee issue as the basis for a comprehensive and permanent peace agreement with Israel. The unified Palestinian government makes it more likely that this position will be articulated with more credibility, even if Hamas as a party does not recognize Israel.
The ripples of the ongoing Arab spring will also go beyond the Hamas-Fateh reconciliation to trigger a gradual reconstitution and relegitimization of the institutions of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). This is significant because it will allow Palestinians throughout the world to add their voice to the deliberations on Palestinian national policies towards Israel, making the PLO position a truly national and legitimate one once again—an indispensible element in any serious quest for lasting peace.
These are some of the most obvious ways in which the Arab spring dynamic has impacted the Arab-Israel conflict in the last four months, and we should expect other such developments in the months and years ahead. It remains to be seen if the more sensible and legitimate policies that emanate from Palestine and other Arab countries in the wake of the Arab spring’s democratic wave will be reciprocated by a similar shift towards more constructive and realistic policies by Israel.
Rami G. Khouri is director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, and a book author and syndicated columnist. This commentary is published by Daily News Egypt in collaboration with bitterlemons-international.org.
