MANAMA: Bahrain will lift a state of emergency next week that was imposed when the government suppressed a democracy protest movement in March with the help of Saudi and other Gulf Arab forces.
After two months of negative publicity around the world over its crackdown and a collapse of business and leisure tourism, Bahrain hopes for a return to normalcy on June 1, following the end of night curfew in Manama this week.
Martial law was imposed in mid-March when the authorities broke up a sit-in of thousands at a traffic roundabout in Manama. Ending the emergency situation two weeks early, the government hopes, will send the right signals to the outside world.
But democracy activists say that while the ruling Al-Khalifa family and the Sunni Muslim elite are keen for business to return, they have no intention of easing up on behind-the-scenes repression of the majority Shia population.
They would be helped in that by a purge of people who took part in the protests and other Shias in many companies over the past two months.
Clashes between police and protesters in Shia villages would be tolerable since the country has often experienced such street unrest in the past and a media crackdown makes it less likely to get reported.
Some areas saw protests this week after a military court upheld the death sentence against two people over the killing of two policemen.
A boon for the government would be reinstating Bahrain in this year’s Formula One motor racing calendar, after it was forced to postpone its grand prix scheduled for March. The championship is due to take a decision on the issue on June 3.
"Removing the curfew and ending the law earlier than the defined period shows things are moving better than expected and life is returning to normal," said Jamal Fakhro, deputy speaker of parliament. "Everybody is excited."
US President Barack Obama criticized Bahrain — an ally that hosts the US Fifth Fleet and seen as a bulwark against Iran — during a speech last week but pressure has been slight. US and British warnings against travel to the country remain.
"The only way forward is for the government and opposition to engage in a dialogue and you can’t have a real dialogue when parts of the peaceful opposition are in jail," Obama said, outlining the US approach to uprisings sweeping the region.
He criticized the crackdown, saying mass arrests and brute force were at odds with the universal rights of Bahrainis and would not make legitimate calls for reform disappear.
But in a sop to the government, he said Bahrain had a "legitimate interest" in the rule of law and that Washington remained committed to its security. He said Iran, which complained to the United Nations over the crackdown, had tried to take advantage of the turmoil.
British Prime Minister David Cameron drew criticism last week for appearing in a photo call outside Downing Street with visiting Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa. While Cameron has been a vocal critic of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, he also visited Bahrain with a delegation of arms dealers earlier this year, leading to accusations of hypocrisy.
No dialogue in sight
At the same time, there is no indication of any desire within the ruling establishment to take up dialogue with the opposition that was on the table until the protests were broken up on March 17.
Talks offered by the Crown Prince had gone nowhere as the opposition was split over aims.
Three Shia groups said in early March they wanted to topple the monarchy and transform Bahrain into a republic. But Wefaq, the biggest opposition group which sought an elected government and end to discrimination in jobs and housing against Shias, appeared to vacillate on talks.
The government last month raised legal action against Wefaq on charges of seeking to "overthrow the constitutional order" and taking instructions from Shia clerics.
One opposition figure, who did not wish to be named for fear of arrest, said hardliners within the ruling family want to bypass Wefaq and encourage the formation of a new opposition.
"Bahrain’s political scene has fundamentally changed. The government is now encouraging the formation of Shia groups to replace Wefaq," he said.
"The government wants to sell a story to the West that all is back to normal but on the ground abuses will continue to silence dissent."
Afshon Ostovar, a political analyst based in Washington who recently visited Bahrain, said there was no sign this week that security checkpoints and tank fortifications, some near the airport or financial centre, would be removed come June 1.
Officials have said Saudi and UAE forces will remain in the country indefinitely and Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid Al-Khalifa raised the prospect last week of a permanent Gulf Cooperation Council military presence in Bahrain.
While Gulf countries fear Iran has designs on Bahrain and that Shias there could help them, Bahrain’s Shias reject the idea as the kind of discriminatory attitude that makes many oppose Al-Khalifa rule in the first place.
"Judging from what’s happening now, it would be a surprise to me if lifting the emergency situation was anything more than mostly cosmetic,"
Ostovar said. "They are still cracking down on the same groups and detaining people. But maybe they are just trying to ‘clean up’ before finally troops leave (the street)."
