CAIRO: The risk of terrorism in Egypt is significantly higher today than it was last year, as a result of the events following the overthrow of longtime president Hosni Mubarak, a recently released report on global security concluded.
According to the 2011 Terrorism Risk Index, produced by the UK-based risk analysis firm Maplecroft, Egypt climbed from a “Medium Risk” country to a “High Risk” country, in regards to its level of terrorist threat.
The report, which covers the period from April 2010 to March 2011, showed Egypt’s terrorism index rating moving from 6.27 to 3.62, with 0 being the riskiest on the 10-point scale, Anthony Skinner, associate director and principle analyst for Maplecroft, explained to Daily News Egypt.
There are several key factors explaining Egypt’s deteriorated score, which Skinner referred to as “quite significant, in terms of risk exposure.”
Following the wave of mass protests earlier this year that ousted Mubarak, Egypt’s “security status-quo has been in a state of flux,” the police have “disappeared from the streets,” the former “ruling party has been dissolved,” and the “country’s main security services have been disbanded,” he cited.
This, coupled with the public backlash against the former regime’s security policies, which saw the “raiding of the old security apparatus buildings in Cairo and Alexandria,” has had negative “implications on Egypt’s ability to monitor and effectively deter terrorist activities,” Skinner added.
Meanwhile, the country’s rulers and security services still in place have had their attention focused elsewhere.
“Egypt’s ruling military council has been preoccupied with trying to ensure for stability and the tricky task of ensuring transition to a government with a greater degree of democracy. The transition to a new status quo might divert attention away from what would otherwise be directed at traditional security risks, like terrorism,” Skinner continued, cautioning that this period of “transition could offer a window to militant groups.”
The Maplecroft index also cited actual incidents within the 12-month timeframe, such as the bombing of churches, and repeated attacks on pipelines, as cause for Egypt’s worsened position.
Adding to Egypt’s current risk, militant groups could exploit the instability in Libya to gain robust opportunities to threaten Egypt.
“There have been reports of arms being smuggled outside of Libya to be used by militant networks elsewhere. Militant groups might seek to take advantage of Libya, and this is very relevant to Egypt,” Skinner said, adding that in addition to Libya, “the flow from the Palestinian occupied territories is potential source of security concern for Egypt as well.”
However, while its score did unquestionably get worse, Skinner admitted that the process of democratization is helping alleviate some of Egypt’s long-term risks to terrorism.
Opening up the regime’s political channels and allowing groups to participate in the political process, promoting accountability, and reigning in corruption, “can potentially reduce key sources of complaint used by militants,” he explained.
If Egypt were to continue on with its path towards greater democratization and create a government accountable to the people, with a narrowed gap between the rich and the poor, then Egypt “in the long term can reduce the overall risk of militancy,” Skinner noted.
Egypt’s changing foreign policy, meanwhile, is helping to mitigate some short-term risk from terrorism.
By pursuing a more independent foreign policy than Mubarak, one that is “perceived as being more critical of Israelis in the political forum,” Egypt can “diffuse a lot of the arguments made by militants in the past to justify targeting the [Egyptian] regime,” Skinner added.
According to Maplecroft’s website, the Terrorism Risk Index calculates its figures by taking into account “the latest and most comprehensive data available to calculate the frequency and lethality of terrorist incidents over the 12-month period prior to April 1, 2011. The TRI also includes a historical component assessing the number of attacks over five years and assesses risks relating to countries’ geographic proximity to terrorist hotspots.”
The TRI places countries into four categories: Extreme Risk, High Risk, Medium Risk, and Low Risk.
Egypt, according to Skinner, is currently ranked 26th globally, with the top spots going to Somalia, Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, South Sudan and Yemen.
