LONDON: Brent crude fell by more than a dollar on Monday to around $107 a barrel with traders and investors anticipating the resumption of oil exports from OPEC-member Libya as a six-month civil war there appeared close to an end.
Rebels swept into the heart of the capital Tripoli and crowds took to the streets to celebrate what they saw as the end of Muammar Qaddafi’s four decades in power, with government tanks and snipers putting up only scattered, last-ditch resistance.
France and the UK have called on Qaddafi’s supporters to stop fighting.
Although oil prices fell on the rebels reaching Tripoli, oil traders are skeptical about how quickly Libyan output can be restored.
Brent crude was down $1.30 to $107.32 at 1200 GMT. US crude rose $1.24 to $83.50 a barrel as the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies. The front-month September US crude contract expires on Monday.
"Brent is taking more of a battering but that’s only to be expected," said Christopher Bellew, a trader at Jefferies Bache. "The divergence is just another graphic example of the dislocation between (US crude) WTI and Brent."
Libya pumped around 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), nearly 2 percent of global supply, before the war cut its output. Most of Libya’s high-quality crude flowed to European refiners, but after Libyan exports ceased, tighter supply drove Brent to a two-year high of $127.02 in April.
Output has fallen to almost nothing during the conflict but technical staff from Italy’s oil and gas major ENI have already arrived in Libya to look into restarting oil facilities.
Libya’s rebel oil firm Arabian Gulf Oil Company (AGOCO) says it is technically ready to start oil output in its two eastern fields and can do so without the presence of foreign oil workers.
Analysts are skeptical as to how quickly exports will rise, however. Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said it could be about six months before output climbed back to 1 million bpd or so, having examined what happened in Iraq in 2003.
"Output was close to zero in the months after the US invasion," he said. "The big question is how much damage has been done to the oil facilities in Libya where the fighting has gone on much longer than in Iraq. There’s a risk it may take a bit longer in Libya."
Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix, said he was not expecting a flood of Libyan crude oil in the near term as some of the early oil output will probably go to local refineries.
The Libyan rebels gained control of the 120,000 bpd Zawiyah refinery last week. "It was believed to be the last operating refinery in the country and was providing Qaddafi forces with fuel, but is now supplying rebels," analysts at JBC Energy noted.
Tight supplies of Libya’s light sweet crude in Europe helped fuel a widening of the spread between Brent and US crude. The spread is already narrowing from a record $26.69 reached last week, and could contract further with the prospect of a resumption in Libyan supplies.
US economy
Traders are awaiting a speech from the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday at a lodge in Wyoming’s Jackson Hole, where policymakers and academics meet once a year.
Fritsch said the possibility of a third round of quantitative easing was keeping oil buoyant. "Talk of QE3 will prevent a steeper price drop for the moment. Prices will remain above $100 for the time being."
Michael Hewson, analyst at CMC Markets, said uncertainty about the US economy was probably helping to support US crude.
"It has been trading in a range of $78-$88 and until we get a clear idea of what the Fed will do on Friday it will stay in that range."
Bellew also pointed to US sanctions against Syrian oil exports, announced last week. The EU is also drawing up plans for a possible oil embargo.
"The next worry is that as fast as you see Libyan crude returning to the market we could see Syrian crude disappearing. That could be stopping it from falling so much," said Bellew. –Additional reporting by Seng Li Peng in Singapore
