CAIRO: Under the leadership of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey launched an ambitious and rather aggressive foreign policy trying to position itself in both the Middle East and the west.
Turkey’s economic growth and foreign policies helped the country’s influence rise steadily in the Middle East, especially with regards to its stance against Israel.
Turkey is arguably seen as an autonomous country that is capable of pursuing its own agenda rather than implementing the west’s.
Earlier this week, Erdogan embarked on a Middle East tour, starting with Egypt, another strong player in the region. However, Steven A.Cook, Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, maintains that “Turkey is indisputably the region’s leading country.”
“If Egypt becomes politically and economically successful in the coming years, it will regain a position of regional influence at the expense of Turkey,” he told Daily News Egypt.
“After all, Egypt is an Arab country that has long been a center of political, cultural and military influence in the region that gives Cairo an advantage over Ankara in the long run, ” he said.
Henri Barkey, an expert on Turkey, the Middle East, US foreign policy and professor at Lehigh University’s department of international relations, told DNE that Turkey is interested in the Middle East on both economic and political dimensions.
“[Turkey aims at] a regional leadership role, and also to find outlets for its exports. Turkey’s economic miracle is based on its export performance and without finding markets it would face problems,” he said.
However, Adel Soliman, head of Cairo’s International Center for Future and Strategic Studies, argued that “Turkey only cares about its economic rights, Erdogan’s visit along with his Minister of Investment, Minister of International Relations and 200 businessmen is proof of that.”
But it is important to understand that Turkey faces challenges including the influence of the other regional powers.
The Arab Spring prompted three regional powers – Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran – to scramble to impose their foreign policies on the countries in question, aiming to carve out spaces for their ideologies, capital and military outreach.
“I don’t think that either Iran or Saudi Arabia, who both have good relations with Ankara, have a choice in this matter [the growing influence of Turkey],” commented Cook.
“Turkey is a large economically successful, diplomatically influential, and politically important country. It is unlikely that these countries can do much to diminish Turkey’s regional influence although all three countries will compete for influence in places like post-Assad Syria and Iraq,” he continued.
Turkey and the Arab street
There is no denying that Turkey has been playing a constructive role in the Middle East. Ankara recently expelled the Israeli ambassador in a feud over an Israeli raid on the flotilla.
The one-year frustration was further fueled by the UN’s Palmer report, which acknowledged Israel’s use of excessive force but stated that its naval blockade of the Strip was legal. Yet, Israel failed to apologize over its attack and compensate the families of the death, leading Erdogan to suspend diplomatic ties with Israel.
Turkey was therefore able to gain not only the confidence of Arab governments but also the respect of their people.
“Erdogan knows what can make him more charismatic on the Arab streets, which is taking a position against Israel even if it has no practical basis,” said Soliman.
At the Arab League headquarters in Cairo on Tuesday, Erdogan met with the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and other Arab representatives who came together to discuss the UN statehood bid which is opposed by the both the United States and Israel.
Soliman argues that this is a “symbolic act,” as Turkey attempts to position itself as a supporter for democracy, freedom and dignity.
Turkey, the EU and the US
Cook explained that Turkey’s effort to draw closer to both Europe and the Middle East reflected a belief within the AKP that its foreign policy needed to be normalized.
“I don’t think it is part of a strategy to gain full membership in the EU or an effort to bring back the Ottoman Empire. Ankara’s efforts to play a larger, more influential role in the Middle East is a function of domestic politics — the AKP derives political benefits at home for playing a more assertive regional role — economic opportunity, and global political changes that have made it possible for Turkey to carve out a more independent foreign policy from its traditional partners in the west,” Cook told DNE.
“Turkey could not fix the crisis with Cyprus – which was a main factor in being accepted in the EU – so they decided to play a key role in the Palestinian issue in order to appear to the EU countries as an important component in this conflict that could be relied on,” explained Soliman.
“In the end the Turks will have to make internal reforms, especially when it comes to the constitution, the judicial system, and most importantly the Kurdish problem,” Barkey said, “Let us be honest, no country that has a problem with 20 percent of its citizens can enter the EU,” says Barkey.
“If Turkey truly democratizes, then it will assure all that it is not drifting away from the EU,” he concluded.
Turkey maintains close ties with Lebanon, Palestine and Syria, as well as Cairo, Riyadh and Tehran; which many experts argue was a threat to the United States.
Tensions grew between Turkey and the US in 2003 after the newly elected parliament voted against authorizing American troops to cross Turkish soil into Iraq. Turkish-American relations deteriorated further with Turkey’s support to Iran and its rejection to any sanctions.
But according to Barkey, despite the tension with the US and the growing role in the Middle East, Turkey is not drifting away from the west or its bid to join the European Union.
“[Turkey] is very independent of the European Union so why not have deep economic relations with the Middle East and the European Union simultaneously? They are not mutually exclusive,” explained Barkey.
Soliman explained that the same day Turkey announced halting the military cooperation with Israel it announced that it has reached an agreement on the deployment of a radar on its territory as part of NATO’s missile defense system, which meant “Turkey will never go completely against the will of the US and Israel.”
