CAIRO: By 2050, the number of people exposed to storms and earthquakes, particularly in coastal areas, could more than double to 1.5 billion, a report said. This is also true for the Middle East and North Africa region, with its rapidly growing cities exposed to many hazards, particularly in coastal areas.
The report titled “Natural Hazards, and Unnatural Hazards Disasters: the Economics of Effective Prevention,” said that in the coming years the region will become more vulnerable to floods, earthquakes, droughts, landslides and other natural disasters that can impede development, unless effective risk management is applied.
By 2100, even without climate change, worldwide damages from weather-related hazards may triple to $185 billion annually and factoring in climate change can add another $28-$68 billion from tropical cyclones alone, the report said.
On Thursday, the Arab League’s Economic and Social Council discussed the report, which is prepared by the World Bank in partnership with the United Nations and funded by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery.
The report concluded that natural hazards often turn into disasters as a result of poor policies and practices, and examines ways to make prevention cost-effective.
“The findings of this report are indeed timely and important to the Arab region,” Secretary General of the Arab League Nabil El-Araby, said.
“While water scarcity is becoming a major threat, climate change is undoubtedly aggravating the situation,” he added.
He explained that these findings must be put on the region’s development agenda, as they provide guidelines for regional efforts aiming at reducing vulnerabilities and risks induced by natural hazards.
“By 2020, more than 66 percent of the Arab population will be living in cities that face several hazards and stressed resources,” Head of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Regional Office for Arab States, Amjad Abbashar, said.
Abbashar explained that it is everyone’s responsibility and duty to face disasters, since it affects everyone.
World Bank Senior Economist and Report Team Leader, Apurva Sanghi, explained that not the government is not the only entity responsible for preventing disasters, but that the market, social networks, and most important early warning systems, should contribute.
He noted that Japan managed to save many lives because of early warning when it was hit by a tsunami last March. He also noted that even though Indonesia is five times larger than Japan, Japan is equipped more that all of Indonesia.
The report shows that taking preventive measures against natural disasters do not require the government to spend more, but spend better.
“Institution building, double-duty infrastructure and sharing data are all key to preventing disasters,” Acting Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa region in the World Bank, Lazlo Lovei, said.
“Even modest increases, and greater sharing of data internationally, can have enormous benefits,” the report said.
Sanghi highlighted the importance of infrastructure, by giving an example on Kuala Lumpur’s storm water management and road tunnel infrastructure and mobility, saying that it succeeded in March 2008 to build a tunnel diverting 1.2 million cubic meters of water.
“When prevention is done right, even poor countries in harm’s way manages to protect their population over time,” he said.
Emily White, disaster risk specialist at the World Bank, said that disaster risk insurance seeks to reduce the opportunity cost of disasters by creating mechanisms before disaster occurs, providing rapid liquidity and encouraging pre-disaster preparedness and mitigation.
“The World Bank’s existing Arab World Initiative (AWI), a partnership with the countries of the region to foster effective cooperation and collaboration in the interests of economic integration and knowledge sharing, could be a powerful impetus for disaster prevention,” Lovei said.
According to the report, property damage between 1970 and 2008 totaled $2,300 billion with earthquakes and droughts causing most of the losses.
Over the past 30 years, natural disasters have significantly affected an estimated 40 million people in the Middle East and North Africa, which has resulted in economic losses estimated at $19 billion.
“Investing today for a safer tomorrow is not a luxury, it’s a life saving measure,” Abbashar said.
The report was also prepared with a partnership of 36 countries as well as the ACP Secretariat, the European Commission, and the UNISDR.
