BEIRUT: A militarization of the anti-government revolt in Syria, an option favored by some within the opposition, would inevitably lead to civil war, analysts warn.
"For now, the majority of the protesters want the movement to remain peaceful but after months of repression there is a risk of militarization," said Agnes Levallois, a Paris-based Middle East expert.
"Resorting to arms would lead to civil war … as no one would be able to control the situation," she added.
The uprising threatening the regime of Bashar al-Assad has remained largely peaceful since it erupted in March. But some activists have recently started calling for Syrians to take up arms or for foreign military intervention in the face of the brutal crackdown by the government that has left more than 2,700 people dead.
On Monday, Washington said that while the peaceful nature of the revolt was laudable it would not be surprising if it turned violent given the brutality of the regime.
But experts and opposition members warn that such a scenario would only serve Assad and erode the "moral superiority" that has characterized the revolution.
"The regime is doing its utmost to push the protesters to take up arms," Levallois said. "It’s clear such an outcome would lead to more repression and would be advantageous for the government which has more weapons.
"And the majority of the protesters don’t want to fall into this trap."
Omar Idlebi, of the Local Coordination Committees (LCC), an anti-regime activist network, said a militarization of the protest movement would undoubtedly tear the country apart.
"If the revolution strays from its peaceful path and resorts to violence it would lose all meaning," said Idlebi, who fled Syria and is now living in Lebanon. "We could have a costly civil war and that would delay the rebirth of a new Syria."
Any civil conflict would also take on a sectarian turn given the country’s confessional make-up. Assad hails from the minority Alawite community, an offshoot of Shia Islam, while the majority of Syria’s 22-million strong population is Sunni. There is also a minority of Christians, Kurds and Druze.
Several experts said weapons are already pouring into the country as some brace for the uprising to turn violent.
Weapons can easily be smuggled in through the porous borders with Lebanon and Iraq or by sea.
"There are reports of guerrilla-type or ambush attacks against the shabiha (government militia) or soldiers and of armed clashes in wooded areas and valleys in border zones," said Riyad Kahwaji, head of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), a think tank based in Dubai.
However that does not mean that the uprising has already turned into a military conflict, he added.
Kahwaji said that in the event protesters take up arms there was a possibility that a country bordering Syria, such as Turkey or Jordan, would set up a security zone at the behest of the international community from which dissidents could launch operations.
"This is the most probable scenario and if that happens then you can compare it to the conflict in Libya," he told AFP.
Another possibility would be widespread defections within the army which would clearly lead to war, he said.
Idlebi said frustration was mounting within the opposition at the international community’s inability even to adopt a resolution at the UN Security Council condemning Assad and his regime.
"In the face of the killings, arrests and torture, more people want to take up arms," he said. "I think this revolution is going to be long and costly.
"But it’s better to reach our goal without foreign intervention or the use of weapons."
