DUBAI: Arab nations which have revolted against their autocratic regimes, unseating three leaders so far, face an economic downturn in 2011, data released by the International Monetary Fund showed on Wednesday.
But energy-rich Gulf countries which were largely spared in the wave of unprecedented protests are enjoying the windfall of increased oil revenues, the IMF said in its quarterly Regional Economic Outlook, released in Dubai.
In Tunisia, the north African nation which triggered the protests that became known as the "Arab Spring" forcing President Zine El Abedine Ben Ali to flee the country, the economy will not see any growth in 2011 after expanding by 3.1 percent last year, IMF data revealed.
Growth will also plummet in Egypt, the most heavily populated Arab country where 18 days of protests forced its president Hosni Mubarak to step down after 30 years in office.
The gross domestic product of Egypt is estimated to grow by 1.2 percent in 2011, compared to 5.1 percent in 2010, the IMF said.
Political and economic uncertainty in those oil-importing countries, combined with weakness in Europe, a major trading partner and source of remittances for some MENA countries, are putting pressure on their economies.
"An uncertain political and economic environment and weaknesses in advanced economies will weigh on the region’s growth prospects, leading to a much weaker recovery in 2012 than anticipated previously," the IMF said.
The immediate picture also looks gloomy for the economy of oil-rich Libya, where liberation was announced Sunday, after the nation’s autocratic leader for 42 years, Moamer Qaddafi, was captured and killed.
"Real GDP is expected to contract by more than 50 percent in 2011," the IMF said in a section focused on Libya, which exported 1.65 million barrels per day of crude oil before the revolt broke out in February.
Trouble in Libya also had a spillover impact on other countries as around 1.5 million migrant workers, mostly from Egypt and Tunisia, had to return home, it said.
The IMF also expected the Syrian economy to shrink by 2.0 percent after years of robust growth, following months of deadly protests against President Bashar Al-Assad.
Yemen’s economy is expected to contract by 2.5 percent this year following nine months of nationwide protests demanding the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
The economy of the impoverished south Arabian Peninsula nation had expanded by 8 percent in 2010, the IMF said.
Regional social disruption has caused "double-digit declines in tourism arrivals in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Tunisia in the first five months of the year," the fund said.
Foreign direct and portfolio investments also dropped, it added.
To cushion the impact of the downturn, some governments introduced subsidies and transfers, "but they face limited fiscal room and rising borrowing costs," the IMF said.
"Accordingly, a difficult period lies ahead during the remainder of 2011 and in 2012, as economic recovery is expected to be a drawn-out process," it said.
And although Bahrain is a member of the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council, its economic growth is expected to slow sharply following a heavy-handed crackdown on a nationwide protest led by the kingdom’s Shia majority earlier this year.
The archipelago’s economy is expected to grow by 1.5 percent in 2011, compared to 4.1 percent last year.
Meanwhile, other oil-exporting Gulf countries, which saw little or no social unrest, are expected to register a 7-percent growth this year.
"The GCC has been largely shielded from the negative impact of social unrest in the region," the IMF said, adding that it instead benefited from higher oil prices — 31 percent higher than in 2010, and increased export volumes.
It pointed out that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) increased their oil production to make up for the shortfall from Libya, and Qatar ramped up its capacity to produce liquefied natural gas.
Kuwait’s economy is expected to grow by 5.7 percent in 2011, compared to 3.4 percent last year, while growth will be at 3.3 percent in the UAE, compared to 3.2 percent in 2010.
The Saudi economy will expand by 6.5 percent in 2011, after growing 4.1 percent in 2010, and Qatar’s economy will continue to make major strides, expanding by 18.7 percent, compared to a whopping 16.6 percent last year, thanks to its growing gas industry.
Oman, which appears to have put behind its back limited social unrest in the spring that resulted in the death of two protesters, is forecast to register a 4.4 percent growth in GDP, compared to 4.1 percent in 2010, the IMF said.
