CAIRO: Egypt’s electoral system is “complicated and difficult for any ordinary Egyptian to comprehend and implement," experts believe, as political powers remain optimistic that it will help them secure a place in a parliament long dominated by members of the former regime.
The first parliamentary elections following the ouster of president Hosni Mubarak are expected to attract an electorate that traditionally boycotted elections. Over 18 million Egyptians voted in a referendum in March, an indication of voter confidence in a new era free of the rigging and electoral fraud that tainted the previous one.
However, voters are concerned that they will find it difficult to figure out the system, which could ultimately spoil their vote.
According to the amended parliament law, eligible voters will choose two individual candidates and one party list first in the People’s Assembly (PA) elections, which start Nov. 28, then in the Shoura Council elections, which being late January 2012.
In addition to fears that some would inadvertently void their vote by confusing ballot boxes or making extra marks on their ballot papers, for example, many still don’t know how the votes will be counted.
Numbers and dates
In the latest amendments made to the parliament law by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) in September, the number of MPs in the PA was reduced from 504 to 498 seats, in addition to 10 seats to be selected by the head of SCAF, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, in his capacity as the acting president.
Both the PA and Shoura Council elections will be held over three stages, each including nine out of Egypt’s 27 governorates.
The first round of the PA elections slated for Nov. 28 will include: Cairo, Fayoum, Port Said, Damietta, Alexandria, Kafr El-Sheikh, Assiut, Luxor and the Red Sea. The run-off is scheduled for Dec. 5.
The second round will be held on Dec. 14 to include: Giza, Beni Suef, Menufiya, Sharqiya, Ismailia, Suez, Beheira, Sohag and Aswan, with the run-off slotted for Dec. 21.
The third round will start on Jan. 3, to include the remaining nine governorates: Minya, Qaliubiya, Gharbiya, Daqahliya, South Sinai, North Sinai, Matrouh, Qena and El-Wadi El-Gadid, with run-offs on Jan. 10.
The new electoral system stipulates that two thirds of the PA, equivalent to 332 seats divided up between 46 constituencies, be elected through the closed party lists system, while one third of the lower house, equivalent to 166 seats divided between 83 constituencies, be elected through the individual candidates system.
Workers and farmers are guaranteed at least 50 percent of the seats, so voters have to choose at least one worker or farmer when selecting the two individual candidates. It also means that in drawing up the electoral lists, each party or coalition must alternate between professionals and workers/farmers in the order in which they appear on the list, which means that two “professional” (fe’at) candidates cannot be listed in succession.
Party members are allowed to run as individual candidates and parties are permitted to run on unified parties’ list or form alliances and coalitions. Individual candidates are welcome to join forces and form unified lists as well.
Run-offs will be held only in the individual candidates system, where winning is by absolute majority; that is, the candidate must secure at least 50+1 percent of the vote. If none of the candidates receive more than 50 percent of the votes, the top two will compete in the run-off to decide on the final winner.
Closed party lists system
Each party or coalition will win a number of seats in each constituency according to the proportion of votes it secures out of the total number of valid votes.
"For example, if 100 people vote in a constituency allocated 10 PA seats, and the top party secures 40 percent of the vote, while the second and third parties secure 30 percent each, then the first party will win four seats, while the second and third parties each win three seats," explained Mohamed Salah, a researcher at the Economic Research Forum.
The number of PA seats up for grabs through lists ranges between four and 10 seats in each constituency, depending on the size of its population.
Each party sets the order of its fielded candidates on the list. Candidates placed at the top of the winning lists are the first to win seats according to the percentage of the votes won by their party. The system does not allow voters to choose candidates according to preference, as would have been the case in an open party list system.
The 64-seat quota allocated for women in the 2010 PA elections was canceled and substituted with a stipulation that at least one woman be included on each party list. The stipulation, however, gives each party the freedom to place the female candidate anywhere on the list. If women candidates are placed at the very bottom of the list, then it would be highly unlikely for them to secure seats, unless the party wins 100 percent of the vote in that constituency. Women’s rights groups have criticized the system for significantly reducing their chances to be represented in parliament.
Although the system stipulates a 50 percent quota to workers and farmers, this does not necessarily guarantee their 50 percent representation, in what many regard as an outdated directive introduced in 1961 under late president Gamal Abdel-Nasser.
If, for example, four lists contesting four seats in one constituency each receive an equal number of votes, only the top candidate in each list will win a seat. If each of the lists is headed by a “professional” candidate, this would mean that no workers or farmers will be elected.
Thus, according to the law, if one constituency fails to fulfill the 50 percent quota of workers and farmers, the electoral coefficient will be calculated for each party. The party with the lowest electoral coefficient will give up its elected "professional" candidate and replace him with the following worker or farmer on its list to complete the 50 percent quota. This process will be done automatically by the Supreme Electoral Commission without referring back to the parties.
The electoral coefficient is equivalent to the number of valid votes secured by the political party divided by the number of seats it won.
One of the main advantages of the closed party lists system is that it guarantees a minimal loss of votes.
"No matter what electoral system is used, it’s inevitable that a number of votes are wasted in the process, but the party lists system minimizes the number as much as possible," professor of electoral systems at Cairo University, Mazen Hassan, told DNE.
Yet, a problem arises when calculating the percentage of votes. If, for example, 10 percent would guarantee one seat in a 10-seat constituency, lists getting 12, 37 or 45 percent of the votes would lead to unoccupied seats, as no list would have enough votes to secure the remaining ones.
One way to solve this is to give the unoccupied seats to the list which won the highest non-winning fraction. Taking the example above, the party which won 37 percent of the vote would take the remaining seat, not the one with 45 percent, because while the latter only had 5 percent unused votes, the former had 7 percent.
Hassan maintains that Egypt uses the electoral coefficient method, while Salah said that it wasn’t clear in the amended law which method would be used to tackle such issues.
Each party must get at least half a percent of the national valid votes in order to secure any seats in the PA.
