CAIRO: As Egypt’s Islamist parties take the lead in the country’s first parliamentary elections after the ouster of Hosni Mubarak, experts question the economic path that the country will take over the coming months.
According to some economists, Egypt’s economy, which has been in constant peril over the past nine months since the uprising, must start becoming a priority for the parliament as well as the current government.
“The problem is that all these political issues have stopped people from thinking about the real problem here, the economy, and that is why the economy has drifted lately,” said Mark Millar, head of research at Naeem Holding.
After violence escalated between Egypt’s security forces and protesters on Nov. 19, the cabinet of former Prime Minister Essam Sharaf resigned, forcing the ruling military council to appoint Kamal El-Ganzoury, as prime minister, who will now be responsible for forming a temporary transitional cabinet.
With the results of the first parliamentary round of elections out, economists hope that the new parliament will start to turn their attention to the needs of the market.
“Now that the elections seem to be going relatively smoothly, the focus is going to have to go back to the economy,” said Millar.
According to results released by the High Election Commission on Sunday, so far, showed that the Freedom and Justice Party, who are affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, are leading the ballots with 36.6 percent, while Al Nour, a more ultraconservative Islamist Salafi party are second in the lead with 24.3 percent.
Moreover, the Egyptian Bloc, a more liberal political front has received about 13.3 percent of votes.
Islamist parties have proven to be the most active and organized campaigners on the ground across Egypt, reaching out and empathizing with people, especially to the 40 percent of Egyptians who are living under the poverty and are illiterate.
“I am surprised that people are surprised,” said Karim Helal, board member of CI Capital, one of Egypt’s most prominent investment firms.
“Given the increased injustices, poverty, very poor state of education coupled with the rise of extremist ideas over the past couple of decades under the previous regime, this outcome was expected, and they [FJP and Al Nour parties] played it very well,” he stressed.
Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, who focuses on Islamist political parties and democratic reform in the Middle East, previously told Daily News Egypt that the Brotherhood had been transforming over the years, becoming part of a “new wave of businessmen.”
According to Hamid, many members of the Brotherhood have previously discussed increasing education costs in order to enhance the quality of education services.
He also stressed that the Brotherhood is run by engineers, doctors, and wealthy businessmen — not by “poor people.”
“Some of their major funders and supporters are major businessmen in the country, such as Hassan Malek and Khairat El-Shater, who are two of the largest donors of the Brotherhood, and personally, they have a free market perspective as individuals,” said Hamid.
Helal pointed out that he is not as concerned with how the Muslim Brotherhood plans to approach economic liberalization as he is with the way “irresponsible” media handles an Islamist majority in parliament.
“Whether you agree or disagree with them, they are very pragmatic and smart,” said Helal, referring to the Freedom and Justice Party. “If one follows that logic and gives them credit for being organized, pragmatic, and smart, I don’t see us heading towards a danger zone, economically.”
He pointed out that the social grievances and social justice cannot be addressed without achieving economic prosperity first, and in order to do this, the focus must be on creating jobs and supporting health investments and businesses.
“We can’t get carried away with ignorant generalizations and fears sparked by the media,” said Helal. “Now when you turn on the television, instead of asking the Muslim Brotherhood parties of how they plan to help the economy recover, they anchors are asking about whether or not they will make women cover up or ban bikinis at beaches.”
Helal pointed out that he fears the country’s youth might feed into these radical representations in the media.
“If Egypt’s youth start to feel that they have no place in this society and talk about leaving the country because of such ignorant generalization and media jumping to conclusions, we will have a brain drain. We need these youth to rebuild the country,” he said.
Magda Kandil, executive director of the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, pointed out that she hopes that the Islamist dominated parliament will be more centrist than extremist, for the sake of the country and the recovery of the economy.
However, looking at the Brotherhood’s history as successful businessmen entrenched in the economy and market, fears that they will take extremist approaches can be somewhat pushed aside.
“I fear that whatever social values that they subscribe to may restrict the economic agenda to some extent, but in terms of their economic policies, they are very committed to economic growth,” said Kandil. “I expect that they will focus on businesses, but I am concerned with their perspective regarding interest rates, tourism, and banking, I hope they won’t move quickly to impose restrictions on these issues.”
Kandil said she has seen similar concerns rise in discussions with several local and foreign investors.
“Some people fear that the Islamist parties might constrain the economy, curb liberalization, and thus hurt financial instruments necessary to revive the economy, people are concerned they might become isolationists when it comes to the economy so they want to know where they stand,” she said.
“We have to wait and see the line of action,” she added. “The division across the country is not in the interest of politicians or anyone right now and the Brotherhood know this.”
Kandil pointed out that Al-Nour, the more conservative Islamist party, which garnered 24.3 percent of votes so far, may lean more towards strict “Sharia-compliance” when it comes to the economy.
“The Brotherhood will think more about the economic repercussions before imposing restrictions,” she added. “The first order is businesses and they realize that too many restrictions will not be good for an economy that has been deteriorating for a while now.”
Although the Brotherhood have several factions, she believes that intellectual group among the Freedom and Justice Party understand the dilemma that they are facing when it comes to the economy.
“I think that they want to strike a balance, keep in mind that the elections are still ongoing, and we can’t hold them accountable for everything they say yet. They may start softening up if they win and if they are smart they will listen to economic advisors,” she said.
