By Mohamed Khalil
As Egyptians, we are effectively living in one big oasis. A vast and barren desert, the world’s largest, cut through straight down the middle of our borders by the world’s longest river. This is a fact that we seem to miss. Collectively and as individuals we do not see the imperative need for us to be extremely prudent with our most important and divine endowment — water. As individuals we are very irresponsible with the use of water. We take long showers, we bathe our cars with ridiculous amounts of water and we are so imprudent that we use water by bathing the streets to relieve the heat. And our state has failed us. It has failed us in having a long term, clear-cut vision for the security of our water resources. It is only now, as a reaction to the Nile basin countries’ decision that they see the current treaty governing the use of the Nile waters as unfair, and further threatening to go-it-alone, that the magnitude of the potential trouble spot has come to our attention. It might be too late.
For a while now we have heard analysts predicting that in the future, the coming wars will be over water. We have turned a collective blind eye to such analyses. We have hidden behind the magnificence and splendour of the Nile, thinking that we are safe in its vastness, that it is an infinite supply of water and that we are the only, or most important, country using it. In our constant search to keep pace with the West, or the more advanced countries, we have ignored those to our south; we have ignored the countries that are potentially more important to us than our more sophisticated and distant peers. In doing so what we have failed to realise is that the future is now.
A ‘water war’ is now well in the realm of possibility. The tone between Egypt and the Sudan vis-à-vis Rwanda, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania as well as Kenya is not very cordial. Ethiopia, a major benefactor of Israeli munificence is proceeding with plans to dam the Nile. Analysts refuse to rule out the possibility of an Egyptian strike against Ethiopia, or worse, a regional war. And although it might seem that such a war would take place beyond our borders, out of sight and therefore of little consequence to us as citizens, we only need to remember the utter failure of the Egyptian army’s venture in the Yemen — and how it foreshadowed the rout of 1967 — to comprehend the effect of such a war on our land.
Unlike Israel, Egypt has not been proactive in strengthening its ties to African countries. We have rested on our laurels for so long that it has come back to haunt us. We hid behind the perception that we are the leading force on the continent and unfortunately it is no longer true. It was true before, when Egypt was at the forefront of the liberation struggle, but we are no longer that beacon of hope for the African continent. Countries like South Africa, who take an active part in regional trade and investment, are the true leaders and true leading lights. Iran, Israel and China have also made inroads into the continent when we should have long before; and while it may be argued that Egypt does not have the capacity that China has, or Iran’s oil wealth, it is a fact that investment in Africa is not very demanding. While it is true that some Egyptian outfits are active on the continent, it is by no means enough.
What the leaders of this country have failed to foresee is that the Nile Basin Treaty, which gives Egypt veto power on the use and consumption of Nile waters is undermined. And with an independent South Sudan the said treaty might well be rendered obsolete under international law. It is symptomatic of this country’s leadership, to be forced into a reaction and not preempt its solution. No one in a position of power was able to foresee the problem that this treaty might cause in the future, no one kept our arrogance in check and now they are all scurrying to make amends to this lack of foresight.
Mohamed Ali, who we are told is the father of the modern Egyptian state, must be rolling in his grave. When he came to power in 1805, one of his top priorities was to secure the Nile tributaries under Egyptian control. Two hundred years have passed and we are doing his legacy a world of harm.
Mohamed Khalil is a Cairo-based commentator.
