A recent poll shows that the percentage of Egyptians who do not intend to re-elect Morsi twice exceeds the percentage of those who intend to re-elect him if elections were held tomorrow.
The Egyptian centre for public opinion research “Baseera” conducted its periodical opinion poll measuring the approval rating of presidential performance after one year in office, with a large sample size of six thousand respondents. This is the first poll in Egypt to introduce the president’s performance indicators on a governorate level, which helps in reading the political map on a local level.
The results indicate a decline in the percentage those who approve the president’s performance: 32%, compared to 42% after 11 months in office, and 78% at the end of the first 100 days of his tenure.
While opinion polls conducted over the last few months have revealed a general trend of decline in the president’s approval rating, poll results of the eleventh and twelfth months have, for the first time, revealed an increase in the gap between the percentage of respondents who do not approve the president’s performance and those who do, increasing from 10 percentage points in the 11th month to 29 percentage points at the end of the 12th month, with disapproval reaching 61% and approval reaching 32%. Around 7% stated that they are not sure about their rating for the president’s performance.
In urban governorates, the president’s approval rating has decreased to 23%, compared to approximately 30% after 11 months in office. Upper Egypt has continued its clear decline in approval rating, falling to 43%, compared to 51% after 11 months and 58% after ten months. The approval rating in Lower Egypt reached 28% compared to 41% during the last 2 months.
The level of education has played a clear role in Egyptians’ evaluation of the president’s performance; the approval rating decreased with the increase in the education level. However, the gap in the approval rating among different education levels decreased in the 12th month, reaching 29% among those with university or higher education, compared to 35% among Egyptians with less than intermediate education with a gap of 6 percentage points.
Respondents were asked the question, “If elections were held tomorrow with Mohammed Morsi as a candidate, would you elect him?” Results indicated that only 25% intended to elect him, 62% did not intend to re-elect him and 13% stated that re-electing Morsi depended on the other candidates.
The results of the poll on governorate level show clear variations among different governorates in the percentage of those who intend to re-elect Morsi, ranging from between 11% and 43%. Generally, the percentages were lower in urban governorates and in some of Lower Egypt governorates. Governorates could be classified according to the percentage of those who intend to re-elect Morsi as follows:
1- Governorates where the percentage was less than 20%: include Port Said (11%), Damietta (11%), Suez (14%), Alexandria (15%), Dakahlia (16%), Cairo (17%) and Kafr Al-Sheikh (17%).
2- Governorates where the percentage ranged between 20% and 29%: include Menofia (20%), Gharbia (20%), Sharkia (21%), Ismailia (25%), Luxor (25%), Giza (26%), Behera (26%) and Qliubia (27%).
3- Governorates where the percentage was 30% or more: include frontier governorates (30%), Assyout (36%), Sohag (37%), Beni-Suef (39%), Qena (39%), Aswan (40%), Menia (42%) and Fayoum (43%).
Comparing these percentages with the percentages of those who voted for Morsi in the last presidential elections shows decreases in the percentages in Suez, Alexandria and Damietta where Morsi had gained high voting percentages in the elections. The president succeeded to keep high percentage of those who intend to re-elect him in Upper Egypt, especially in Fayoum, Beni-Suef and Menia where he gained high voting percentages in the elections re-run (78%, 67% and 64% respectively).
Poll Methodology:
The survey was conducted using landline and mobile telephones, with a sample size of 6,179 respondents ages 18 or older nationwide. All interviews were conducted during the period from 15 to 20 June, 2013. The response rate was approximately 73%. The margin of error was less than 1% on the national level and less than 3% on governorate level. Income brackets were determined based on ownership of durable goods.
