Greeks vote again on 20 September. Even though the governing party Syriza has split, its leader – Alexis Tsipras – is in a strong position. He’ll continue implementing reforms, says political scientist Heinz-Jürgen Axt.
Professor Axt, you already predicted new elections in mid-July. Were they inevitable?
It was to be expected because the upheavals and transitions have been so extreme that it was safe to assume something would happen. On the one hand, Alexis Tsipras is implementing the opposite of what he had promised. On the other, the Syriza of past elections no longer exists, as its left wing has split off to form of a new party, led by Panagiotis Lafazanis.
Do you think that Syriza and Alexis Tsipras will nonetheless emerge as a stronger force in the elections?
Some minor polls suggest that Syriza will lose some ground compared to the last elections, simply because Lafazanis wants his party to take away Syriza seats. But as far as any other polls are concerned, Tsipras is still very popular and I can understand why. I have observed that the Greek population harbors deep resentment toward the old ruling class in the country.
What will be the outcome of this election? How will the government be made up?
It seems that many parties may surpass the 3% threshold required to obtain parliamentary representation. Of course, the large parties like Syriza or the traditional center-right party Nea Dimokratia (New Democracy) will enter parliament – but also parties like the pro-European and centrist party, To Potami; the communists, KKE; the traditional social democrats, PASOK; Lafazanis’ party, and ANEL (Independent Greeks), the right-wing populists can succeed. Of course that means that, by Greek standards, a very unusual situation has arisen, meaning a variety of parties will be represented in parliament, maybe six to eight. But the Greeks want a stable government, and then they have to think about forming a grand coalition with Syriza and Nea Dimokratia. In terms of foreign policy, this would evoke trust in the country’s creditors but of course, will also cause tension within the government. It is obvious that the two parties are pursuing different goals.
Do you think Syriza can rule on its own?
No, I don’t think so. Last time Syriza won 36%, but needed ANEL for an absolute majority. I suspect Syriza will lose 8%-9% to Lafazanis’ new party. Also, rumour has it that the president of the parliament wants to form a new party. So, many disputes and tensions within Syriza come into play. In this respect, I don’t think Syriza has a chance of ruling alone.
Do you think any party that openly promotes a Grexit, like the new Lafazanis party, has a real chance among voters? In other words, who would vote for a party that wants to exit the Euro?
Probably Greeks who are critical of the system, who entertain anti-capitalist sentiments, who are opposed to an EU orientation; basically, it is a potpourri of all those views. In my opinion the Lafazanis party can be compared to the Greek communist party, KKE, except for the fact that Lafazanis is much more elegant, fashionable and perhaps more modern than they are. But basically, the new party is saying: We are against the system as a whole. Unlike Tsipras, who says he tried to extract the best parts of the system for Greeks and himself, Lafazanis’ party is against the system as an entity.
Apart from the major changes brought about by the economic and societal crisis in Greece, the country’s political landscape has been turned upside down. In this sense, can one say that the crisis has enriched political culture in Greece?
This may well be a cathartic process. I truly see this as an opportunity. If you compare what has been going on in the rest of Europe, the fact the Greece has never seen a mandatory formation of a coalition is truly an exceptional situation. We’re talking about proportional representation, not majority vote. Nevertheless, it has always been was relatively easy to reach majorities and until now, voters have made relatively clear decisions. The gravity of the crisis does not only encompass finances and the economy, but also political orientation and political culture, in general. People have very different aspirations and they can barely relate to the traditional parties anymore. In this respect, I see the coalition as a step towards a moderate modernization of Greece. We really have a completely new situation in terms of political positioning in Greece.
Prof. Heinz-Jürgen Axt is a political scientist and an authority on southeastern Europe. Until his retirement, he was a professor for European Integration and European Policy at the University of Duisburg-Essen in Germany.
Interview conducted by Konstantinos Symeonidis
