The US fears that Russia may decide to use military force in Syria. At the same time, governments in Washington and Moscow have been finding common ground, at least in terms of their stance toward the Assad regime.
It wouldn’t be the first time that Russia supplied Syria with weapons. The government in Moscow has been backing President Bashar al-Assad’s regime for a long time now and has never made a secret of it. Yet the United States is concerned by Russia’s most recent shipment of weapons to the war-torn country. To the United States, it seems like Russia has been boosting its military commitment in order to prepare for possible military intervention. The armored infantry fighting vehicles, grenade launchers and small firearms delivered in the past days arouse such suspicions.
Nonetheless, Russia’s Foreign Ministry has dismissed the US’s qualms. Moscow claims that it is helping Syria’s government fight groups such as the “Islamic State.” Markus Kaim, a leading researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, considers this point to be plausible. “The Russian military has been active in the region for years, especially by training and providing support to the Syrian army,” the security specialist and Middle East scholar said. “The Russian government now correctly confirms the fact that recent arms sales merely fulfill existing agreements.”
Kaim thinks that is unlikely that Russia will intervene in Syria’s civil war. Russia’s commitment goes beyond military support: Moscow is also very active on a diplomatic level, he said. In August, Russia’s government tried to win over members of Syria’s opposition to become dialogue partners for Assad’s regime. Russia aims to safeguard its influence in the Middle East to show Europe and the United States that there is no way around Moscow anymore.
This is only one strategy with which Russia’s leaders have found success – and not only with regard to Syria. A good number of Arab countries who are known to be US allies now align themselves with Russia. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, for example, visited Moscow in August – his fourth trip to Russia in two years. After Mohamed Morsi – who was actually the first democratically elected president in Egypt – had been ousted, el-Sissi became the new strong man in Egypt, and Putin extended his hand to him. Back then, the West responded negatively, only to reach out to el-Sissi later on.
Even the vice president of the United Arab Emirates and Jordan’s King Abdullah II, traditionally US allies, visited Putin in August. Russia and the United States are both striving for supremacy in the Middle East. In light of the current situation in Syria, their respective stances are converging, Kaim said. The West no longer insists on conflict resolution without Assad, while Russia no longer expects Assad to win the war. Moscow’s wish is to strike a balance and thereby show those involved that further military action would make little sense, Kaim believes: “Otherwise, Moscow’s talks with Syrian opposition members would make no sense whatsoever.”
UK Foreign Minister Philip Hammond recently suggested creating a government of national unity in Syria as a means of resolving the conflict – but at first under Assad, who would have to resign after six to 12 months. “That comes across as a mutual point between Russia and several Western governments,” Kaim said. In many respects, they have been working on similar lines, even though the involved parties do not admit it.
