Egypt’s Human Development Report 2021 has expected that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will contribute to a severe decline in Egypt’s annual share of Nile water and the loss of large areas of agricultural land.
The report, issued by the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development in cooperation with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), said the agricultural sector in Egypt consumes about 80% of the country’s total amount of fresh water.
Regarding the GERD issue, the report said that the dam will aggravate the situation and may lead to water disputes in the region.
As a result of projected temperature rises and potential rainfall declines, the demand for water for agricultural purposes is likely to increase, adding to the problem of water scarcity.
Since Egypt relies heavily on the Nile for Agriculture, Agricultural Development will be affected by the effects of climate change on the Nile.
The report predicts that the annual flow of the Nile will vary by an increase of 30% and a decrease of up to 70%, and these two sharp changes could have serious implications in terms of increased risk of flooding or droughts, leading to reduced food production and increased job losses.
Although Egypt did not participate in the process of planning or implementing the dam, it agreed to cooperate with Ethiopia and Sudan in assigning international advisory offices to conduct the technical studies necessary to assess the design of the dam and its impact in the downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan), but these studies have not yet been completed.
According to the Human Development Report, the filling of the dam is expected to seriously affect the availability of water in Egypt, reduce per capita water, and thus affect various economic activities, especially if Ethiopia uncooperatively fills the dam reservoir.
The report said that if the filling process takes only 5 years, as planned by Ethiopia, the cumulative water shortage rate of the Aswan High Dam will increase to 92 billion m3, spread over several years, and soon the water level in Lake Nasser will drop to 147 m, making it impossible to compensate for the loss of water.
Moreover, filling and operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have a negative impact on the production of the High Dam from hydropower, as the cost associated with the decline in the production of the High Dam from hydropower after 10 years of filling will reach about $16.4bn, hindering Egypt’s ability to ensure affordable access to reliable and sustainable energy services for all.
