Talk about the possibility of a war between Iran and Israel is increasing day by day. This is especially so since Israeli officials implicitly assert that their country will attack Iran if it reaches the brink of acquiring nuclear weapons, using air power, as they did with Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007. Indeed, among the many conflicts in the Middle East, the Iranian-Israeli conflict is most likely to explode.
For many years, Israel, which also possesses nuclear weapons, tried in every possible way to prevent Iran from acquiring these weapons. This made the two sides engage in a hidden war for many years. However, they mostly sought to avoid open clashes and followed the politics of deniability to mitigate the intensity of the clashes. The recent attack on a military factory near the city of Isfahan with drones is also one of the episodes of this hidden conflict.
Despite this, the situation seems likely to escalate this time, as Iran accused Israel of carrying out this latest attack, vowing to respond. This is in addition to the presence of many other influential motives, such as the failure of the nuclear agreement, Iran’s support for Russia in the Ukrainian war, and the assumption of the extremist Netanyahu government. This is especially since the news indicates that Israeli officials have started actual discussions to assess Israel’s readiness for a military conflict with Iran, in addition to preparing a budget for purchasing weapons and obtaining the special equipment necessary for such a campaign, according to the Israeli press.
Therefore, the question that arises strongly in the political arena today is whether Israel can actually launch a clear military attack on Iran.
Indeed, the first and foremost consideration that could make Israel reluctant to enter into an open military confrontation with Iran is certainly the absence of clear American support. So far, it seems that the Biden administration at present has a lot of problems and pressures that impede it from supporting the Israeli attack on Iran. First, the decline in Biden’s popularity due to the American people’s discontent with the injection of billions into the Ukrainian war. Secondly, implementing Biden’s policy of withdrawing from the Middle East, especially after pumping 4 trillion dollars into Iraq and Afghanistan without benefit. Thirdly, the state of inflation, the fuel crisis, and the prices that American citizen is currently suffering from that will definitely get worse with the outbreak of a new war in the Middle East. Fourth, the sharp division within Congress between the Republicans and the Democrats, and the desire of the Republicans to pursue isolationist policies until the United States regains its economic strength again. Fifthly, American support for a direct attack on Iran by Israel at this time will give Iran a golden opportunity to exit the nuclear agreement without sanctions. Sixth, the American support for an attack on Iran will put the American forces in the region in a direct battle front with the pro-Iranian forces. Seventh, and most importantly, the American support for Israel in launching a war against Iran is an implicit approval of violating the airspace of many Arab countries, such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, since there are no direct geographical borders between Iran and Israel, which will definitely require a firm response from the concerned countries.
The Arab position on such a war is also an important consideration for the Netanyahu government. Certainly, Israel will have to confront Iran’s allies in the Arab region, from Syria to Iraq to groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Even in countries that have treaties with Israel, no one can predict their reaction. Despite all expectations in this regard, there remains a big rift between the expected positions of Arab governments and those expected of their people. This is because even in countries that show siding with Israel and a desire to ally with it against Iran, it is not possible to ensure that those governmental desires are consistent with internal public opinion, in the event of the outbreak of that war, which may represent a threat to the home front of those countries. In addition to all this, the Russian-Iranian rapprochement and Russia’s presence as a major player in the Middle East cannot be ignored. Although Israel rules out a confrontation with Russia in the event of such a war, the Russian position is unpredictable, especially in light of the threat Israel may pose to Russian interests in the region in light of this war.
The third factor that the Netanyahu government cannot ignore is the divided Israeli internal situation. In fact, Israel is currently suffering from an unprecedented internal Zionist partisan and political state of congestion, mutual hostility and incitement, and an internal crisis that Zionist politicians expect to reach the level of a “civil war”. The most important reason for the disagreement is certainly the attempt to give a religious character to the state under the new extremist government. Indeed, this government seeks to bring about revolutionary changes in the file of the judiciary and powers and to share and control the military and security file, in addition to giving Biblical and Talmudic doses in secular government education. In fact, the Netanyahu government is trying to race against time to correct the work of the two previous governments, the government of Naftali Bennett and the government of Yair Lapid, by accelerating the passage of extremely extremist and right-wing legislation. Thus, there is certainly a gap between those who see that they want to preserve the democratic and secular system and the ruling institution as a neutral institution, and between Benjamin Netanyahu and Ben Gvir Smotrich who want a system they call democratic, but it is in Its reality is a system of individual rule, in which the institution is excluded and institutions are controlled.
Certainly, all of the above factors will affect Israel’s ability to decide to launch a direct attack on Iran. However, the war of statements will certainly continue unabated between the two parties. This is because it seems that the two sides decided to wage a secret cold war, the impact of which may be deeper, and it is the intelligence and espionage war that tops the news.
Dr Marwa El-Shinawy is an assistant Prof. at International American University for Specialized Studies(IAUS)
