Inflation influenced by supply chain disruptions, exchange rate fluctuations since March 2022: CBE

Hossam Mounir
4 Min Read

Egypt’s annual headline urban inflation jumped to 25.8% in January 2023, from 21.3% in December 2022, according to the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE).

The CBE said that inflation continued to be influenced by supply chain disruptions, the exchange rate fluctuations since March 2022, and the increase in demand-side pressures on consumer prices.

Annual headline inflation in January 2023 reflected mainly higher prices of food items and supported by higher prices of non-food items. Annual food and non-food inflation continued their upward trend to record 47.9% and 16.0%, respectively.

Monthly headline urban inflation recorded 4.7% in January 2023, up from 0.9% in January 2022. This was mainly driven by a broad-based increase of 3.5% in core food items’ contribution to inflation.

Non-food items also contributed to monthly headline urban inflation, which was basically driven by the higher contributions of both services and retail items.

Driven by higher broad-based annual contributions, annual core inflation continued its upward trend that started more than a year ago, to record 31.2% in January 2023, from 24.4% in December 2022.

Monthly core inflation recorded 6.3% in January 2023, up from 0.8% in January 2022, the highest monthly core inflation rate on record.

Nationwide annual inflation increased to 26.5% in January 2023 from 21.9% in December 2022. In addition, rural annual inflation increased to 27.2% in January 2023 from 22.5% in December 2022.

Prices of fresh vegetables declined by 2%, while prices of fresh fruits increased by 2.2%. Together, they contributed by negative 0.03% to the monthly headline inflation.

Prices of poultry, pasta, dairy products and red meat increased by 29.6%, 17.8%, 10.4%, and 9%, respectively; registering their highest monthly increases on record.

Accordingly, the contribution of poultry, pasta, dairy products and red meat to the monthly headline inflation was 1.32%, 0.17%, 0.43%, and 0.38%, respectively.

Prices of oils and fats increased by 11.1%, to contribute by 0.36% to the monthly headline inflation.

Prices of fish and seafood increased by 9%, to contribute by 0.21% to the monthly headline inflation.

Prices of eggs increased by 9.8% to contribute by 0.15% to the monthly headline inflation.

Prices of market tea increased by 8.9% to contribute by 0.07% to the monthly headline inflation.

Prices of other core food items including market sugar, confectionery and sweets, pulses, bread, and rice among others, increased to contribute by 0.41% to the monthly headline inflation.

Prices of services increased by 2.3%, to contribute by 0.75% to the monthly headline inflation. This mainly reflected higher expenditure on restaurants and cafes.

Prices of retail items increased by 2.6%, to contribute by 0.37% to the monthly headline inflation. This was mainly due to an increase in the prices of personal care products, clothing and footwear, household appliances and cleaning products, and medical products and appliances.

Prices of regulated items increased by 0.3%, to contribute by 0.07% to the monthly headline inflation.

Monthly core inflation was affected by price changes of the aforementioned core CPI items.

Core food items, services and retail items contributed by 4.78%, 1.03%, and 0.50% to monthly core inflation, respectively.

 

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